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FACTBOX: State contests ahead and stakes for candidates

Sat Jan 26, 2008 7:30pm EST

(Reuters) - Here is a list of the upcoming U.S. presidential nominating state primaries and caucuses and what is at stake for candidates in the days and weeks ahead.

Barack Obama

* January 29: Florida (Republican primary; Democrats are not contesting the state because of dispute with national party). Rudy Giuliani has put all his resources and time into this contest, hoping to benefit from the large population of Northeasterners who have relocated to the warm Southern state and his tough theme of national security. It is an important test for the former New York mayor, who bypassed earlier contests to concentrate on Florida and has largely faded from view as those contests grabbed the headlines. The voting is also key for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, whose sole win so far has been in Iowa, where a strong evangelical turnout fueled his surprise victory. Since then, he has failed to turn in another win, losing to Sen. John McCain in South Carolina last Saturday. Polls show McCain leading the pack as well in Florida with voting just three days away. Don't count out former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who added Nevada to his win list last Saturday and has the resources to stay in the race.

* February 1: Maine (Republican) One more chance for Republicans to score a win in advance of the Super Tuesday matchup of 22 states. Few candidates will have the resources to make major plays in array of major voting centers.

* Super Tuesday, February 5: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (Democratic), Illinois, Kansas (Democratic), Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana (Republican), New Jersey, New Mexico (Democratic), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (Republican). Once thought to be the definitive date on the political calendar, when the nominee in each party would be clearly determined, the picture is far more muddled now by the number of candidates who have staked wins in different places. The sheer number of contests on this day could give the legitimate contenders plenty of opportunities to find a win somewhere and move on. However, a candidate who picks up many victories across the country -- especially in the big states like California and New York -- could be on his or her way to the nomination. A number of candidates have connections to these states: McCain represents Arizona in the Senate, Huckabee is former governor of Arkansas, Obama is from Illinois, Romney is a former governor of Massachusetts and Clinton and Giuliani are from New York.

* February 9: Louisiana, Kansas (Republican), Washington.

* February 10: Maine (Democratic)

* February 12: District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia. These races a week after Super Tuesday now loom as potentially important contests if no decisive victor in either party has emerged.

* February 19: Hawaii (Democratic), Wisconsin. Same holds true for these contests a week later.

* March 4: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont. If there is no clear winner by now, this could be another potentially decisive round with the two large states of Texas and Ohio voting.

While no one is ready to predict the races will extend to this summer's nominating conventions, a prolonged campaign would put a premium on candidates with the money to endure and the staff to parachute into states that so far have been largely ignored.

Once one party settles on a candidate, pressure could build on weaker contenders in the other party to drop out and avoid a lingering primary fight.

Source: National Association of Secretaries of State for calendar, Reuters correspondents

(Editing by Peter Cooney)

(To read more about the U.S. political campaign, visit Reuters "Tales from the Trail: 2008" online at blogs.reuters.com/trail08/)



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