Brisk urban turnout seen key for Obama in Texas

Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) shakes hands with supporters after a campaign speech at the University of Cincinnati in Cincinnati, Ohio, February 25, 2008.

DALLAS (Reuters) - With a key vote in a week's time, early Democratic turnout in largely urban areas of Texas is eight to almost 10 times what it was in the 2004 primary, the Texas secretary of state reports.

Analysts said the areas home to blacks, students and well-educated voters are likely Barack Obama territory and such turnout should benefit the first-term Illinois senator in his nomination battle with Sen. Hillary Clinton.

"It is the turnout and numbers in the urban areas that will fuel an Obama win in Texas," said Cal Jillson, a professor of political science at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.

With its 228 delegates to the Democratic convention at stake next Tuesday, Texas and its hybrid primary/caucus nominating process is crucial to Clinton's hopes of staying in the U.S. presidential race. If Obama wins in Texas, as well as Ohio, which votes on the same day, his winning streak could be unstoppable.

"Turnout is absolutely critical. Both camps will work extremely hard on that even though the voters are motivated to turn out in ways that we have not seen in decades," Jillson added.

For Clinton, a New York senator, turnout in areas seen key to her fortunes, such as the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley, is also up but not by as much, according to the Texas secretary of state's Web site. Early voting began a week ago on Tuesday.

For Obama, the urban areas are the prize, with more voters and more delegates to the party's summer nominating convention.

In Harris County, which includes Houston and has a large black population, the turnout among all registered voters who cast ballots in the Democratic primary at the end of Monday had reached 4.54 percent compared to just 0.47 percent over the same period in 2004.

In Dallas County the figures were 5.34 percent to 0.48 percent while in Tarrant County, which includes Fort Worth, the figures were 4.70 percent versus 0.58 percent.

In El Paso County -- a heavily Latino border area seen as Clinton country -- as of Monday the Democratic turnout was 7.51 percent versus 2.51 percent over the same time frame in 2004. In Hidalgo county, another mostly Hispanic border region, the figures were 10.22 percent to 6.68.

Harris County has over 1.8 million registered voters versus almost 369,000 in El Paso County. In Harris almost 82,000 people had cast early ballots in the Democratic primary by Monday compared to just over 29,000 in Hidalgo.

In the suburb of Euless in Tarrant County, the early voting polling station at the local public library had a steady trickle of voters on a week day afternoon.

"This is a fantastic turnout," said county election official Barbara Girouard, the best she'd seen in 25 years.

(Editing by David Wiessler)

(To read more about the U.S. political campaign, visit Reuters "Tales from the Trail: 2008" online at blogs.reuters.com/trail08/