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UPDATE 2-Brazil posts record current acct deficit for March
(Recasts, adds central bank comments, April forecasts)
BRASILIA, April 28 (Reuters) - Brazil posted a record current account deficit for the month of March as the trade surplus dwindled and companies increased dividend and profit remittances abroad, central bank data showed on Monday.
The deficit BRCURA=ECI reached $4.4 billion in March compared with a surplus of $235 million in the same month of 2007 and was higher than the $3.1 billion median forecast of 12 analysts surveyed by Reuters.
The forecasts for the deficit ranged from $3.8 billion to $2.5 billion.
Brazil's external accounts may be under pressure for months to come as a strong local currency fuels a surge in imports that will eat into the country's trade surplus. The strong real may also prompt foreign companies in Brazil to repatriate more of their profits abroad.
"What we see in terms of the Brazilian balance of payments is that there is a structural shift," said Altamir Lopes, head of economic research at the central bank, at a press conference. "This new structure has as its main components a smaller trade surplus, profit and dividend remittances that are much larger."
Lopes forecast a deficit of $2.8 billion in the current account in April. The deficits "are still small and are perfectly manageable" because of the rise in foreign direct investment, Lopes said mirroring comments he made in previous months.
In February, Brazil ran a current account deficit of $2.1 billion, according to previously reported central bank data.
Foreign direct investment in Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, rose to $3.08 billion in March from $2.77 billion in the same period in 2007, just beating the central bank's forecast for the month.
The bank forecast investment will rise to $3.8 billion in April, helping cover the current account gap.
Brazil's currency, the real (BRBY)BRL=, has gained about 5.7 percent in 2008 against the U.S. dollar, after strengthening 20 percent in 2007. The strong currency has made it cheaper for companies to import new machinery and for consumers to buy electronic equipment and other overseas goods.
"March's report confirmed that Brazil is now running in a negative current account environment, leading (the currency) performance to become more dependent on the volatile capital account flows, which up to now has been able to support the currency," said Diego Donadio, an analyst at BNP Paribas in a report.
In the 12 months through March, Brazil posted a current account deficit equal to 0.71 percent of gross domestic product compared with a deficit of 0.36 percent of GDP in the 12 months through February.
The current account balance tracks a country's net flow of external transactions, including foreign trade, interest payments and services such as tourism. It is used to gauge a country's dependence on foreign capital.
(For central bank details on Brazil's current account figures for March, see: www.bcb.gov.br/?ECOIMPEXT) (Reporting by Isabel Versiani, writing by Elzio Barreto; Editing By Diane Craft)











