INSTANT VIEW: Reaction to confidence data

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Confidence among consumers fell to a five-year low in April as they confronted the grimmest jobs market since autumn 2004, the Conference Board said on Tuesday.

KEY POINTS: * The private Conference Board's index of consumer sentiment fell to 62.3 in April, the lowest since March 2003, when the Iraq war was launched, from an upwardly revised 65.9 in March. * Despite the fall, the result beat the median forecast of economists polled by Reuters, which projected a reading of 62.0. * Reflecting worries about the labor market, the gauge of respondents' feelings that jobs are plentiful slid to 16.6 in April, the lowest since September 2004, from 19.2 in March. * A measure of the view that jobs are hard to get rose to 27.9 -- the highest since November 2004 -- from 24.5.

COMMENTS:

GEORGES YARED, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, YARED INVESTMENT

RESEARCH, WAYZATA, MINNESOTA:

"What is really driving inflation expectations are the two "f" words, 'food' and 'fuel', the two bellwether barometers that affect consumers every day.

"When you mess with these two staples, consumer confidence is going to be shaky at best and that is what we are seeing."

CHRIS RUPKEY, SENIOR FINANCIAL ECONOMIST, BANK OF

TOKYO-MITSUBISHI, NEW YORK:

"Consumers haven't been this depressed in a long time. I will say there is often a disconnect between what consumers feel and what they actually do at the stores and shops and malls. Spending certainly isn't tumbling as you would expect given this quite depressed consumer confidence and the decline in home prices. It is kind of a one-two punch and consumers are pessimistic but they haven't stopped spending.

"They are saying that jobs are much harder to get since the start of the year and that does not bode well for this Friday's employment data. This is exactly what you see when we are in a recession and the labor market indicates that we are indeed in a recession, and the million dollar question is whether this decline in confidence leads them to pull back their spending."

SUBODH KUMAR, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SUBODH KUMAR &

ASSOCIATES, TORONTO:

"Consumer expectations were low to start off with, the fact they're a hair above the consensus doesn't mean very much. The market's going to wait and see what the Fed will do tomorrow. We'll also be looking to see if the consumer spends the stimulus checks and the market will be watching to see if that money is actually being spent. If you look at gas prices and housing prices, consumers will stay very cautious."

LINDSEY PIEGZA, MARKET ANALYST, FTN FINANCIAL, NEW YORK:

"Consumers are very concerned about a recession and inflation. There is nothing but disappointment after disappointment. You have news stories of food rationing coupled with idea of rising gasoline. There are constant reports about the housing market in a slump and the financial market in disarray. We could see a 5-handle on the consumer confidence index."

"There's not much hope out there, and we are going to see consumer spending to erode."

"Consumers may be holding up their spending in anticipation of the government's rebate checks. You may see bursts of confidence, but the trend is well established and is disappointing."

MARK MEADOWS, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, TEMPUS CONSULTING,

WASHINGTON:

"Almost in line. A little upward revision to last month and still down from last month. This does not really change our view that consumers are continuing to experience the strain of higher oil and food prices. Right now the dollar should stay at these lower ranges and probably made a bottom at $1.5550 (on the euro/dollar). We are looking for it to base there."

MARKET REACTION: * BONDS: U.S. Treasury debt prices steady at higher levels. * CURRENCIES: U.S. dollar extends gains against the euro. * STOCKS: U.S. stock indexes little changed. * RATE FUTURES: U.S. short-term interest rate futures point to 82 percent chance of an April Fed rate cut.

EARLIER DATA FROM APRIL 29: Prices of existing U.S. single-family homes extended their slump in February, with 17 of the 20 measured regions posting record annual declines, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller home price index on Tuesday.