INSTANT VIEW: Reaction to confidence data
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Confidence among consumers fell to a five-year low in April as they confronted the grimmest jobs market since autumn 2004, the Conference Board said on Tuesday.
KEY POINTS: * The private Conference Board's index of consumer sentiment fell to 62.3 in April, the lowest since March 2003, when the Iraq war was launched, from an upwardly revised 65.9 in March. * Despite the fall, the result beat the median forecast of economists polled by Reuters, which projected a reading of 62.0. * Reflecting worries about the labor market, the gauge of respondents' feelings that jobs are plentiful slid to 16.6 in April, the lowest since September 2004, from 19.2 in March. * A measure of the view that jobs are hard to get rose to 27.9 -- the highest since November 2004 -- from 24.5.
COMMENTS:
GEORGES YARED, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, YARED INVESTMENT
RESEARCH, WAYZATA, MINNESOTA:
"What is really driving inflation expectations are the two "f" words, 'food' and 'fuel', the two bellwether barometers that affect consumers every day.
"When you mess with these two staples, consumer confidence is going to be shaky at best and that is what we are seeing."
CHRIS RUPKEY, SENIOR FINANCIAL ECONOMIST, BANK OF
TOKYO-MITSUBISHI, NEW YORK:
"Consumers haven't been this depressed in a long time. I will say there is often a disconnect between what consumers feel and what they actually do at the stores and shops and malls. Spending certainly isn't tumbling as you would expect given this quite depressed consumer confidence and the decline in home prices. It is kind of a one-two punch and consumers are pessimistic but they haven't stopped spending.
"They are saying that jobs are much harder to get since the start of the year and that does not bode well for this Friday's employment data. This is exactly what you see when we are in a recession and the labor market indicates that we are indeed in a recession, and the million dollar question is whether this decline in confidence leads them to pull back their spending."
SUBODH KUMAR, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SUBODH KUMAR &
ASSOCIATES, TORONTO:
"Consumer expectations were low to start off with, the fact they're a hair above the consensus doesn't mean very much. The market's going to wait and see what the Fed will do tomorrow. We'll also be looking to see if the consumer spends the stimulus checks and the market will be watching to see if that money is actually being spent. If you look at gas prices and housing prices, consumers will stay very cautious."
LINDSEY PIEGZA, MARKET ANALYST, FTN FINANCIAL, NEW YORK: Continued...





