UPDATE 3-Mexico's Calderon sees oil exports falling further

(Adds central bank comment on tax reform paragraphs 11-14)

By Jason Lange

MEXICO CITY, June 29 (Reuters) - President Felipe Calderon said on Friday he expected Mexico's crude oil exports to slip further this year and next, underscoring the need for a fiscal reform to make the country less dependent on oil revenues.

"Starting in 2006, the volume of our oil exports has been falling at an alarming rate and from what we have observed up until now, this year and the next will be no exception," Calderon told a banking event.

Mexico's oil exports slipped 1.3 percent in 2006 to an average of 1.793 million barrels per day (bpd) as state oil monopoly Pemex grappled with lower output at its huge but aging Cantarell oil field.

Oil exports have slid a further 4.4 percent from the 2006 average in the first five months of 2007 to average 1.714 million bpd. The declining volumes coincide with lower oil prices after the historic peaks of the last few years.

Pemex has a target to keep oil exports at at least 1.648 million bpd this year, a Pemex spokeswoman said.

Calderon is battling to get a key fiscal reform proposal through Congress aimed at reducing Mexico's economic dependence on oil export revenues, which make up more than a third of federal income.

Opposition lawmakers have held up the bill, saying it should include a provision to further trim Pemex's hefty tax bill, which was clipped last year to around 55 percent of total revenues from above 60 percent in past years.

"It's time we transformed this dependence on oil before it's too late. It's essential that we find more stable sources of financing," said Calderon, who was energy minister under the previous government.

He noted that oil exports in the first five months of 2007 were down by 220,000 bpd, or 11.4 percent, compared to the first five months of 2006.

Mexico is the world's No. 9 exporter of crude oil by volume and a major U.S. supplier. Oil exports had increased steadily over the past few years until 2005 when they dropped 2.8 percent, due in part to disruption from hurricanes.

Calderon has expressed hope that the fiscal reform plan could be approved by September to be included in the government's 2008 budget.

The overhaul seeks to raise the government's tax take to 13 percent of gross domestic product by 2012 from 10.2 percent today, one of Latin America's lowest levels.

That would enable more government spending on roads, hospitals and schools in country where about 50 percent of Mexicans live on less than $5 per day and the World Bank says close to 18 percent lack enough money to meet minimal nutritional needs.

Central Bank President Guillermo Ortiz said, however, that the tax reform was only a first step to bolstering federal income.

"I believe the country needs to collect quite a lot more than three percentage points of (gross domestic) product," Ortiz told reporters.