California's primary: Never mind the movie stars

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Forget the movie stars. To win California's presidential primary on Tuesday, experts say candidates from both parties need to conquer the country's largest and most diverse electorate, made up of voters who don't take their cues from Hollywood.

California's sheer size and 15 million registered voters across the ideological spectrum make campaigning expensive and difficult for presidential hopefuls chasing its mother lode of delegates on "Super Tuesday."

"There are millions of people who are going to vote in both the Democratic and Republican primaries who are simple middle-class people living in single-family homes," Los Angeles Democratic strategist Bill Carrick said.

"The people who actually live under the Hollywood sign live in a pretty normal neighborhood comparable to people in states all across America," he said.

Those middle-class Californians are as interested in the economy, health care, education and the war in Iraq as the rest of the U.S. electorate, political analysts say -- although they harbor a strong independent streak in keeping with the state's maverick reputation.

The California primary has grown considerably in influence since Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a measure moving it from June to February. As one of the country's most expensive media markets, the state presents special challenges to cash-strapped candidates.

A Los Angeles Times poll this week showed New York Sen. Hillary Clinton with a 49 percent to 32 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama on the Democratic side and Arizona Sen. John McCain with a 13-point margin over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for the Republicans.

'A RESTLESS QUALITY'

But the poll also found that among California voters, three out of 10 Democrats and four out of 10 Republicans said they may change their minds before Election Day.

"The race is getting more fluid and California definitely has a certain restless quality," said former Gov. Jerry Brown.

Polls show Clinton enjoys broad support across California's many Democratic constituencies, in part thanks to her husband's long popularity in the Golden State, and ties to labor unions.

Latinos, considered one of California's key demographics despite questions about turnout, also recognize her name, and analysts say Obama needs to focus on working-class issues if he wants to make inroads there.

"That is a real weakness in Obama's campaign," said Raphael Sonenshein, a professor of politics at California State University, Fullerton. "Latino voters are immensely interested in economic issues and everybody underestimates that."

Because California is not a winner-take-all state and holds its primary along with more than 20 other states on February 5, Obama may be willing to settle for a second-place finish that allows him to claim a share of the state's 441 delegates.

Each party's presidential nominee is chosen by delegates to national conventions held at the end of summer, and candidates want to secure as many delegate votes as possible.

While the February 5 primaries may not clinch the nomination for any candidate, half the Democratic delegates and more than 40 percent of Republicans will be chosen by Super Tuesday.

Among Republicans, McCain holds a strong lead, but some experts believe he may be vulnerable on immigration, a key area of concern by California conservatives in a recent Field Poll.

Though considered a "blue state" that tends to vote Democratic, Schwarzenegger has won two terms as governor by running as a moderate conservative.

Republicans should also focus on the economy in California, Carrick said, where the subprime lending crisis and sliding real estate market have hit the state hard.

"It's fun for the media to cover who is up and down among the Hollywood celebrities but the candidates spend a lot more time worrying about how to reach voters living in the San Fernando Valley," Carrick said.

(Editing by Doina Chiacu)