SNAP ANALYSIS-N.Korea pushes US, risks economic hit for test

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By Jon Herskovitz

SEOUL, May 25 (Reuters) - North Korea's apparent nuclear test on Monday could push the reclusive state deeper into isolation, while giving leader Kim Jong-il a boost at home and forcing the United States to make Pyongyang one of its top policy priorities.

* The test is one of North Korea's biggest provocations, which could mean its recent cycle of sabre-rattling will slow down. This could mean any harm done to regional financial markets in the immediate aftermath of the test will be short-lived.

* The test could increase the security threat posed by North Korea if data indicates it has produced a better design for a nuclear weapon after its first test in October 2006 was only seen as a partial success because of its low yield.

* North Korea will alienate China, its last major ally and biggest benefactor. It will likely be hit with further U.N. sanctions as a result because Beijing may not use its U.N. Security Council veto to protect Pyongyang, which will also take a hit financially for the large costs it takes to conduct a test.

* But since the isolated North may already feel the pinch from a tightening of existing U.N. sanctions called for in response to an April rocket launch, it may believe the economic damage that would come after a nuclear test would not deal too heavy a blow to its already wobbly economy.

* North Korea will likely restart all of its Yongbyon nuclear plant, which provides the state with arms grade plutonium and was being taken apart under a disarmament-for-aid deal among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States.

It will take about a year to restart the entire plant, experts say, which can provide it with enough fissile material each year for one nuclear bomb.

* The North said last month it had restarted its facility at Yongbyon that separates plutonium from spent fuel rods cooling at the plant, which could eventually give it enough fissile material for one more nuclear bomb.

* A second nuclear test depletes the North's meagre supply of fissile material, which experts say is estimated to be enough for six to eight nuclear weapons.

* A second nuclear test will be heralded by the North's propaganda machinery as a triumph for leader Kim Jong-il and his "military-first" policy. This will help Kim further solidify his leadership after questions were raised about his grip on power after he was suspected of suffering a stroke in August.

* North Korea will try to force the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama to recognise it as a nuclear weapons state and force him into direct talks. The North for years has used its military threat to squeeze concessions out of major powers.

(Editing by Dean Yates)