Global chip rebound seen delayed to 2010 - Gartner
SINGAPORE, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Any rebound in global chip demand could be delayed till 2010 as demand shrinks in the second half of this year and macroeconomic conditions worsen, research firm Gartner said on Tuesday.
The research consultancy has trimmed its 2008 forecast for worldwide semiconductor revenues to $285 billion, reflecting a rise of 4.2 percent, from an estimate of $287 billion in the April-June quarter.
It expects to cut its projections further over the next few quarters, depending on the degree of weakness in the U.S. economy.
Last year, the global chip market grew 3.8 percent to hit revenues of $274 billion.
"End-market demand for electronics products held up well in first half of '08, but reports from Taiwan indicate semiconductor market conditions are deteriorating," said Gartner analyst John Barber in a presentation during Gartner's 14th annual semiconductor roadshow in Singapore.
"Prepare for a very weak second half '08 and a very weak first half '09. It could be very difficult to recover going forward," he said, adding that the rebound might be pushed out to the first half of 2010.
Last month, the top two contract chip makers -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) (2330.TW) and United Microelectronics Corp (2303.TW) -- expressed concerns over slower demand in the third quarter as customers tried to clear their excess stockpiles.
Meanwhile, demand for chips that power gadgets ranging from laptops to mobile phones and MP3 players in the Asia Pacific remains robust, thanks largely to China and India, Gartner said.
The region is expected to contribute about 58 percent of total global chip sales in 4 years, up from 55 percent last year.
China, including Hong Kong, will account for 62 percent of total chip demand in 2012, from about 59 percent last year, but growth will slow to single-digit levels, said Gartner analyst Philip Koh.
India's share will rise to 5 percent from 3 percent over the same period.
Vietnam and Thailand are expected to be the next two growth markets in the region, as more companies diversify their manufacturing operations into other emerging markets apart from China and India, Koh added. (Reporting by Jennifer Tan, Editing by Jacqueline Wong) (jennifer.tan@thomsonreuters.com; +65-6403 5660; Reuters Messaging: jennifer.tan.reuters.com@reuters.net)
