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RPT-GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks at 2-yr low; oil above $121

Thu Aug 21, 2008 10:41pm EDT

Stocks

   

(Repeats to wider audience, with no changes to text)

Stocks  |  Russia

* Asia stocks at 2-year low

* Oil up 6.5 pct in week on Russia tensions

* Measures of risk taking are stable

* Asia's bear market could be nearing end - HSBC

By Kevin Plumberg

HONG KONG, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Asian stocks slipped to a two-year low on Friday, falling for a fourth straight week, as a surge in oil prices to above $121 knocked the U.S. dollar and the spiralling financial crisis showed no signs of ending.

Crude prices have been driven up 6.5 percent this week on escalating tensions between the United States and Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter. Russia's military intervention in Georgia has disrupted crude transit, supporting prices.

A rise in commodity prices cut short a two-week rally in the U.S. dollar, though analysts said the currency's 1.3 percent decline this week was understandable given its stellar rise recently and that an upward trend is still intact.

Investor anxiety about the financial sector meanwhile lingered.

Freddie Mac (FRE.N), one of the top U.S. mortgage finance companies, is talking with private-equity and other investors about buying some shares but faces fears that a government bailout would wipe out any investment, The Wall Street Journal said.

Japan's Nikkei share average .N225 hit a five-month low, hurt by shares of exporters such as electric parts maker Kyocera Corp (6971.T) and Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T).

"The trading environment is worse than yesterday as the yen became stronger and oil prices rose sharply," said Yoshinori Nagano, chief strategist at Daiwa Asset Management. "Lingering worries about the global economy, including Japan, are also weighing on the market."

The MSCI pan-Asia stock index .MIAS00000PUS was down 0.3 percent, after hitting a two-year low in early trade. The Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index .MIAPJ0000PUS edged up 0.2 percent though was off 2.7 percent on the week.

South Korea's KOSPI tumbled about 2 percent to a 16-month low, with shares of the country's top retail lender leading the index lower. Hong Kong's markets were shut because of a typhoon.

THE END IS NEAR?

Some analysts said Asian markets were getting closer to a bottom, assuming that the U.S. recession began when regional markets peaked in November 2007.

"We think the start of the recession will be pinned down to November last year -- which means that, as long as this is just a normal cyclical recession, the bottom for stocks could come very soon," said Garry Evans, Asia-Pacific equity strategist with HSBC in Hong Kong.

Over the last 50 years, U.S. recessions lasted between six and 16 months. U.S. stocks on average bottomed four months before the economy would level out and Asia stocks about a month later, Evans said in a research note.

Measures of risk taking among investors were somewhat stable compared with earlier equity market sell-offs that coincided with massive retreats in willingness to take risks for higher returns.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility index .VIX, often referred to as Wall Street's fear gauge, slipped to a 2-1/2-month low on Thursday.

The so-called TED spread of 3-month LIBOR interbank borrowing rates over the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield, which usually increases in times of distress, was at 111 basis points, 33 basis points below where it was about a month ago.

The euro was down 0.1 percent at $1.4876 EUR= though now stood more than 2 cents above a six-month low of $1.4630 touched on Tuesday.

Against the yen, the dollar edged up 0.2 percent to 108.62 yen JPY=, though it was about 2 yen below a seven-month high of 110.67 yen hit last week.

Gold was trading at above $834 an ounce XAU= in the spot market, near Thursday's 1-½ week high, underpinned by the dollar's recent retreat and Russia-U.S. tensions.

Platinum, palladium and silver also rose to track gold, which has bounced 8 percent since tumbling to a nine-month low last week, when a surging dollar ignited heavy selling.



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