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RPT-GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks plumb 2-yr low on growth fears

Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:38pm EDT

Stocks

   

* Global earnings expectations are questioned

Stocks  |  China

* MSCI world stocks index hits 23-month low

* U.S. dollar, metals both edge up (Repeats to more subscribers with no change to text)

By Kevin Plumberg

HONG KONG, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Asian stocks fell to a two-year low on Wednesday, down 30 percent from a peak hit in November, as the past month's $30 drop in the price of oil has not been enough to shake a sense of fear about sharply slowing global growth.

World stock markets slid to the lowest since September 2006 on Tuesday, with investors increasingly sceptical about earnings expectations for 2009 given the mixed results so far in 2008 and the constant reminders about instability in the financial sector.

Crude crept up near $115 a barrel and gold prices edged higher, but the U.S. dollar continued to rise and extend the last two weeks of sharp gains. U.S. gasoline inventory data due later in the day is expected to show a fourth consecutive weekly loss.

"U.S. financial worries are responsible for about 80 percent of the market fall here today," said Masayoshi Okamoto, head of dealing at Jujiya Securities in Tokyo. "The rest is due to the eroding outlook for corporate earnings for the first half."

Japan's Nikkei share average .N225 fell 0.3 percent to a one-month low on apprehension about the earnings outlook after the Bank of Japan described the world's second-largest economy as "sluggish" -- a term it has not used since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago.

The MSCI pan-Asia equities index .MIAS00000PUS fell 0.5 percent to its lowest since July 2006, down 22 percent this year.

The MSCI all-countries world index .MIWD00000PUS on Tuesday tumbled to a 23-month low, down 18 percent year-to-date.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index .HSI slipped 0.4 percent, after closing at a one-year low on Tuesday, with shares of HSBC (0005.HK) the biggest drag.

The Shanghai composite index .SSEC fell 0.8 percent, in sight of a 20-month low reached on Tuesday. The index is watched by many global investors as a gauge of risk taking and a leading indicator for the world's fastest growing economy.

Donald Straszheim, vice chairman of Roth Capital Partners in Los Angeles and a long-time China analyst, said the worst performing stock market this year will continue to fall because of the toxic concoction of slowing growth and high inflation.

He expects earnings to rise 15 percent in China this year, down quite sharply from 30 percent to 45 percent pace enjoyed by most sectors in 2006 and 2007.

"Shanghai has proven to be a very emotional market, and is likely to stay that way," said Straszheim in a note to clients.

FED IS "POISED TO ACT"

Some economists believe that all of the Group of Seven rich nations are at risk of recession, with Europe, Japan and the United States perhaps already in one. Such widespread economic weakness would hurt emerging markets that depend on demand from advanced economies.

Central bank officials have been struggling to balance concerns about rapidly slowing growth rates around the world with persistent inflation.

Two Federal Reserve officials known for their tough stances against price pressures stressed overnight the central bank has to be prepared to raise interest rates to keep inflation at bay if slowing growth does not do the trick. [ID:nN19273677]

"Until we have a clear sense of what will prevail, monetary policy-makers must remain poised to act if slowing growth fails to contain inflationary pressures," said Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed.

Higher borrowing costs might be the last thing that corporate management wants at a time when consumer demand is drying up.

After weeks of liquidation of positions in the metals markets, which have helped to push up the U.S. dollar, investors slowed down to survey the scene.

The euro edged down 0.1 percent to $1.4767 EUR=, but was up from a six-month low around $1.4630 hit on Tuesday.

The dollar rose 0.2 percent to 109.82 yen JPY=, struggling to test a seven-month high of 110.67 yen reached last week.

Metals markets were relatively quiet compared with the last few days. Gold rose 0.4 percent in the spot market to $816.30 an ounce XAU=, spending only a few days trading below $800.

The September U.S. light crude contract CLc1 rose 37 cents to $114.90 a barrel, gravitating around the $115 mark. Oil is still up 20 percent so far this year but its sharp decline in the last month on expectations for slowing demand has stung a variety of investors from institutions to hedge funds.



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