SINGAPORE, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Following is the view from
Reuters Asia editors on the news that is likely to matter most
for the week ahead starting Nov. 9:
* OBAMA IN ASIA: Focus on trade and Japan ties
* APEC SUMMIT: Protectionism, trade imbalances, stimuli
* WEF DELHI: Nissan, Alcatel-Lucent, PepsiCo, Reliance
* JAPAN DEBT: CDS jump highlights bond market jitters
* CHINA DATA: Strong Oct adding momentum to Asian recovery
OBAMA IN ASIA (Nov. 12-19)
U.S. President Barack Obama visits Japan, Singapore, China
and South Korea in his first Asian trip since taking office.
Trade will be a key focus, and particularly tensions with China
over tariffs, and the appropriate value of the yuan. The United
States slapped anti-dumping duties of up to 99 percent on
Chinese-made oil well pipes last week in the latest test of the
thorny relationship between the two countries. In Japan, Obama
will discuss the U.S. security alliance with Japan, which has
been strained by a dispute over where to relocate a U.S. Marine
airbase on Okinawa. [ID:nOBAMAASIA]
(john.chalmers@thomsonreuters.com)
> Five key Asia political risk themes to watch [ID:nSP47441]
APEC SUMMIT
Ministers and leaders from the 21-member Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation group begin meeting in Singapore this week
ahead of a full summit on Nov. 15. Protectionism, trade
imbalances and the ease of doing business will be among the key
issues being discussed. The leaders are expected to announce
they will keep up stimulus policies and push for a global trade
deal next year as they seek to spur a lasting economic recovery
[ID:nSIN502305]. ABAC, the APEC Business Advisory Committee,
will come up with a series of recommendations on dismantling
barriers and red tape in the region.
We have a strong cross-asset team on hand for the annual
extravaganza that also features a CEO summit (Nov. 12-13) that
will gather over 1,000 company executives from around the world
for a dialogue with leaders. The regional grouping has no power
to negotiate, and makes decision by consensus, but could try to
reach a common position on carbon emissions ahead of the
December Copenhagen talks. The event will also feature live
blogging by our onsite team.
(jean.yoon@thomsonreuters.com)
(john.chalmers@thomsonreuters.com)
WEF DELHI (Nov. 8-10)
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh kicks off the World
Economic Forum event by flagging a renewed interest in reform
and promising to start winding down fiscal stimulus next year
[ID: nSP411252]. We will also gauge the mood of Indian
companies as Asia's third-largest economy appears set to return
to a high growth path. We will also focus on doing business in
India, the sluggish pace of reforms and the eternally poor
infrastructure among others. Speakers include Nissan Motor Co
(7201.T) CEO Carlos Ghosn, Alcatel-Lucent (ALUA.PA) CEO Ben
Verwaayen, Norwegian telecom firm Telenor (TEL.OL) CEO Jon
Fredrik Baksaas, PepsiCo Inc (PEP.N) CEO Indra Nooyi, Reliance
Industries (RELI.BO) CEO Mukesh Ambani, and senior officials
from Barclays Plc (BARC.L), Temasek [TEM.UL], Daiichi Sankyo
(4568.T), ICICI Bank (ICBK.BO), Wipro (WIPR.BO), and Hindustan
Unilever (HLL.BO).
> Company news diary [GLO/EQUITY]
(jean.yoon@thomsonreuters.com)
JAPAN DEBT (briefings all week, machinery orders Nov. 11)
A blow-out in CDS JPGV5YJPAC=MP to April highs and a
yield curve at its steepest in three years shows just how
seriously markets are taking the "fiscal crisis" in Japan. The
government and the Bank of Japan disagreed publicly about
whether the economy is at risk of a double dip recession. A
minority of analysts think the government is right. Wednesday's
machinery orders story will likely focus on the prospect of a
double dip led by a drop in capital spending. Whether the
government is right or not, as long as it believes in a double
dip it is unlikely to rein in spending enough to allay bond
market concerns. Our coverage of a week of appearances by
government officials will also focus on the investment decision
making process. What precisely happened in the past few days to
tip the balance? What aspects of the government's approach to
spending do investors find particularly worrying? At what point
will yields begin to attract investors again? How worried are
the BOJ, Finance minister Fujii and Strategy Minister Kan? We
plan an analysis putting the latest bond jitters in a long-term
perspective. Japan's savings rate is plunging and with issuance
soaring, domestic investors may not be able to take up the bulk
of government debt for much longer. Tokyo could soon face
Washington's problem of persuading foreigners to buy its debt.
[ID:nECONJP]
(dayan.candappa@thomsonreuters.com)
(eric.burroughs@thomsonreuters.com)
> Five world markets themes this week [MKT/THEMES]
> MARKETS WEEKAHEAD-One last hurrah before yr-end
[ID:nL6682867]
CHINA ECONOMY (trade Output, money supply, CPI, Nov 11)
The Chinese economy is expected to have gathered steam in
October, adding momentum to the Asian recovery. We are looking
for two milestones: Industrial output growth at the fastest
pace (+15.5%) since June 2008 before the global crisis put the
skids under Chinese factories and a positive annual change in
import figures. The latter is very much a leading indicator of
Asian growth and a good reason to keep betting on regional
stocks. Money supply will stay strong (+34.4%) and CPI will
edge toward the end of deflation (-0.4%). The big question of
the past month has been answered: China has no plans to change
its easy policy stance now.
(dayan.candappa@thomsonreuters.com)
> Top economic events [M/DIARY]
> Reuters polls and surveys [ID:nL10903477]
> Americas weekahead [WKAHEAD/AM]
> Europe weekahead [WKAHEAD/EM]
> Index of Reuters diaries [IND/DIARY]
(Editing by Mathew Veedon)
