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TREASURIES-Futures rise in Asia on geopolitical concerns

Mon Aug 11, 2008 12:23am EDT

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* Russia-Gergia conflict sparks government bond buying

Bonds  |  Global Markets  |  Russia

* Easing inflation concerns help Treasuries

* This week's consumer, inflation reports awaited

By Rika Otsuka

TOKYO, Aug 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury futures rose on Monday as armed conflict between Russia and Georgia sparked safe-haven bids in government debt, while oil's retreat from record highs helped ease inflation fears.

Credit concerns also offered support for Treasuries after Mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM.N) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N) last week reported their fourth straight quarterly losses.

But activity was subdued as many investors were away from the market due to Japan's "obon" summer holidays this week.

"Oil's slide from record highs has soothed stagflation worries, prompting investors to buy both stocks and government bonds today," said a senior bond trader at a European brokerage.

Falling energy costs offer relief for consumers and the economy, as well as providing room for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates steady to aid the slumping housing and financial sectors.

U.S. crude oil futures CLc1 dropped to $114.90 a barrel in post-settlement trade on Friday, the lowest since early May. Oil has shed about 20 percent since its peak of over $147.27 struck in mid-July.

But on Monday, oil rose more than 1 percent to $116.65 a barrel on concerns that fighting between Russia and Georgia could disrupt energy exports from the Caspian region. [O/R]

September T-note futures TYv1 rose 6/32 to 115-16/32, crawling towards a three-week high of 115-25/32 struck on Friday.

Benchmark 10-year notes US10YT=RR were up 1/32 in price to yield 3.935 percent, down half a basis point from Friday's late U.S. trade. The 10-year yield dipped below 3.92 percent in early Asian trade before oil started to rise strongly.

Two-year notes US2YT=RR edged up 2/32 to yield 2.476 percent, down 3 basis points.

Moves in oil and stocks are likely to remain the bond market's focal points.

But traders said investors are also watching this week's key consumer and inflation data for clues about the U.S. economy and the future monetary policy path of the Fed.

"If this week's reports paint a pessimistic picture of the economy, the benchmark 10-year yield is likely to start falling towards 3.6 percent," the trader at the European brokerage said.

The government will release July retail sales data on Wednesday, while Reuters and the University of Michigan will report their consumer confidence survey on Friday.

The July reading for the consumer price index is due on Thursday. [ECI/US]

The headline CPI figure hit 5 percent in June, its largest year-on-year rise since 1991.



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