Japan's domestic stalemate to strain U.S. ties

TOKYO (Reuters) - After eight years of cosy ties with George W. Bush, some Japanese policy makers worry pressure from the next U.S. president for Japan to take a bigger global role could strain relations just when Tokyo has scant energy for bold diplomacy.

A domestic political stalemate is already endangering Japan's support for the war in Afghanistan and, analysts say, could fan U.S. perceptions that Tokyo isn't pulling its weight in global trade talks or efforts to stabilize the world financial system.

Tensions between Tokyo and Washington risk creating space that a rising China is eager to fill, but for all the angst, an alliance long at the core of U.S. security strategy looks unlikely to unravel any time soon.

"China is waking up to the concept of responsible stakeholder, recognizing that the way to carve out space internationally is to become part of the solution," said Brad Glosserman, executive director at Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based think tank.

"I don't think we will wake up and say 'poof, there went the U.S.-Japan alliance', but it's all about how people work together to address common concerns and the Japanese are not doing all they could."

Democratic candidate Barack Obama's short foreign policy resume and memories of President Bill Clinton's two terms, when Washington upset Japan with a strenuous push to opens its markets and then appeared to favor Beijing, has raised Japanese concerns about possible tensions if Obama wins.

Neither Obama nor Republican John McCain, however, are likely to steer sharply away from a policy that views Japan as a vital ally while also seeking to accommodate China's growing clout.

Instead, a domestic political deadlock that is stymying Tokyo's efforts to cope with tough economic and social challenges as its population quickly ages, poses the biggest threat to the alliance, analysts in both countries agree.

LOOK IN THE MIRROR

"The Japanese need only to look in the mirror to see the real threat to the alliance and to Japanese economic vitality," said Richard Samuels, a political science professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and an expert in Japan security policies.

"Tokyo's policy dysfunctions are going to rankle, whatever administration comes to power in Washington."

Tokyo faces a test in the months ahead as Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda tries to extend beyond January a naval refueling mission in the Indian Ocean in support of U.S.-led operations in Afghanistan, a war both Obama and McCain view as critical.

Opposition parties that control parliament's upper house, are likely to reject legislation to extend the mission.

The ruling parties can overturn that in the lower house but the junior coalition partner fears this will upset voters opposed to prolonging the mission, ahead of a general election that must be held by September 2009.

Even optimists on the relationship acknowledge Tokyo may fail to meet U.S. expectations.

"We have to give more attention to domestic issues before we are going to reach the stage where we are going to become a bigger player in the world," said former diplomat Yukio Satoh, now president of the Japan Institute of International Affairs.

Tokyo's inward gaze will irritate U.S. policy makers, whether Democrat or Republican, some analysts say, and that could boost worries in Japan about its declining relevance as an ally.

"Financial systems are grappling with new systemic challenges and we need cooperation from Japan," said Sheila Smith, a senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council for Foreign Relations in New York. "The worst that could happen is that China looks more available to engage in that kind of cooperation. That would exacerbate anxiety in Japan."

"In the economic realm, we need Japan to be there and we need Japan to be engaged for the stability of the trading and financial systems."

Still, mutual interests are likely to keep the allies closely bound despite occasional bouts of friction and frustration.

"Japan is the most important base for U.S. forward deployment ... not only in Asia but stretching to the Middle East," said Yoshihide Soeya, a professor at Keio University.

"For Japan, our security policy can never be complete without the United States," he said, adding that developing its own nuclear arsenal was not a serious option for Tokyo given a public atomic allergy and a diplomatic commitment to non-proliferation.

"Abandonment is not an option. If it happens, it would be a revolutionary development for both Japan and the United States."