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TREASURIES-Fall in Asia before U.S. jobs report

Fri Dec 5, 2008 12:04am EST

* Treasuries fall in Asia on profit-taking

Bonds  |  Global Markets

* Volatile trading expected once U.S. jobs data out

* U.S. 30-year yields hits all-time low

By Satomi Noguchi

TOKYO, Dec 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries fell in Asia on Friday before an expected dismal U.S. jobs report later in the day that could reinforce expectations for further extreme monetary measures from the Federal Reserve.

The benchmark 10-year yield edged up on profit-taking but stayed near the more than half-century low hit the previous day on continued demand for the safety of government debt after a late U.S. stock slide on Thursday.

The 30-year yield hit a record low before picking up, after having drawn support from the Fed's plan to buy mortgage securities to lower home loan rates, and after a report this week that the U.S. Treasury is developing a plan to try to reduce mortgage rates on home loans to 4.5 percent, analysts said.

The U.S. government's monthly employment report is expected to show that non-farm payrolls shed 340,000 jobs last month, pushing the jobless rate up to 6.8 percent, which would be the highest in 15 years. [ID:nN04412515]

Analysts warned of volatile trading later in the day as some investors may be more inclined to take profits from the recent market rally that has pushed yields to historically low levels.

"The fall in Treasuries' long-term yields has been very sharp and fast, without a major break. So there is a possibility that some players will take their cue from jobs data to book profits if the result is in line with expectations," said Ryuji Shimai, a market analyst at Shinko Securities.

The benchmark 10-year note fell 12/32 in price to yield 2.596 percent US10YT=RR, up 4 basis points from late New York trade.

It fell as low as 2.54 percent the previous day, the lowest in more than five decades on hedging needs as mortgage rates fell.

The jump in home owners refinancing mortgages as rates fall has created a need to buy long-dated Treasuries as a hedge for mortgage portfolio managers.

The 30-year bond dropped 26/32 in price to yield 3.080 percent US30YT=RR, up 2 basis points from late U.S. trade and pulling back up from an all-time low of 3.04 percent hit in early Asian trade.

The two-year notes edged down 1/32 in price to yield 0.844 percent US2YT=RR, up 2 basis points.

Although the market may be vulnerable to profit-taking selling, analysts said the Treasury bond market was likely to hold firm as market participants are now looking closely at the Fed's mid-December policy meeting and its moves to buy fixed income securities.

The Fed is widely expected to cut its 1.0 percent benchmark interest rate by a least half a percentage point at its Dec. 15-16 policy-setting meeting.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's hint earlier this week that the central bank may directly buy longer dated Treasuries sent the market on another rally. (Editing by Hugh Lawson)



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