Goldman "super spike" analyst cuts oil forecast
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs energy equities analyst Arjun Murti, one of the first to predict $100 a barrel crude, cut his 2009 oil price forecast to $110 from $140 a barrel this week due to global economic weakness.
"We have moderated our 2008 and 2009 oil price forecasts both to account for the recent pullback and better reflect oil demand uncertainty," Goldman Sachs said in a research note prepared by Murti and other Goldman analysts.
Murti roiled oil markets in 2005 by forecasting oil above $100 a barrel -- a prediction that came true late in 2007. Murti said earlier this year crude oil prices could rise further to $150-$200 a barrel before the end of 2009 in what he called a "super spike."
"Our bullish oil macro framework has been based on the fairly straightforward logic that in an environment of limited spare capacity and lackluster supply growth, prices would need to rise to ration demand down to levels of available supply," Goldman said in the note released Wednesday.
"We believe the essence of this call remains intact. However, over the next several quarters, we now see slowing global GDP growth as being the driver of weaker demand, reducing the need for high and rising prices to ration demand," Goldman said in the note.
Goldman's commodity research team, which sometimes carries oil price forecasts that differ from Murti's equities-focused group, said earlier in the week it slashed its average 2009 U.S. crude oil forecast by $25 to $123 a barrel.
(Reporting by Richard Valdmanis, editing by Matthew Lewis)
