Americans, Finn among late Nobel tips: report

OSLO (Reuters) - Americans Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar and Finland's former president Martti Ahtisaari are among late tips to win the Nobel Peace Prize, though there is no clear favorite, Norwegian NRK television reported on Thursday.

The winner of the 2008 peace prize will be announced in the Norwegian capital on Friday at 11:00 a.m. (0900 GMT).

Nunn, a Democratic former Georgia senator, and Republican Senator Lugar of Indiana have worked for nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament in the former Soviet Union since the collapse of Communism.

Ahtisaari brokered a 2005 peace deal between Indonesia and rebels in its Aceh province to end 30 years of fighting and mediated Serb-Albanian talks on Kosovo as the European Union's envoy until March last year.

"Among the 197 candidates that the Nobel committee has to choose from this year, there is no obvious favorite," NRK TV news said.

But NRK's veteran correspondent Geir Helljesen, who has a strong track record of mentioning the winner on the eve of the prize, said Nunn, Lugar and Ahtisaari were possible winners.

He noted that other media have raised the prospect of Chinese or Russian human rights activists winning, and he said the European Union was in with only a slim chance.

"The American senators Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar have been among the top candidates for several years, and they can be this year as well for their tireless work to be rid of weapons of mass destruction in Russia after the breakup of the Soviet Union," Helljesen said.

"If the two are left without a prize this year, their candidature will soon go out of date," he said.

TIPPED FOR PRIZE

Online bookmakers Paddypower did not list Nunn and Lugar among those tipped for the prize. It put Chinese dissident Hu Jia as favorite at 15-8 odds and had Ahtisaari third at 5-1.

Speculation by experts and bookmakers has focused on the chance of an award for human rights work, such as to a Chinese or Russian dissident, in a year marking the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

But NRK said the Norwegian Nobel Committee could opt to reward conventional disarmament or peacemaking this year after criticism for last year's prize to former U.S. Vice President Al Gore and the U.N. climate panel for work to halt global warming.

"Finland can perhaps also get its first prize winner -- former president Martti Ahtisaari," NRK's Helljesen said.

Stein Toennesson, head of Oslo's International Peace Research Institute, told Reuters that Nunn, Lugar and Ahtisaari had been among his favorites to win in the past but were not among his top picks this year.

"What made their cause really strong," he said of Nunn and Lugar, "was September 11, 2001 when you got this fear that terrorists could get hold of fissionable material and produce a nuclear bomb."

"If the prize is given to someone who has worked more directly with peace, Ahtisaari is still a candidate because of the agreement he negotiated with the government of Indonesia, but he would have been a better candidate in 2006 and 2007," Toennesson said.

The Nobel committee denies leaking the name in advance to NRK, but acknowledges giving tips in the past. NRK still has a far stronger record than any other news outlet in getting a journalist on the doorstep of the winner on prize day.

(Additional reporting by Alister Doyle; Editing by Charles Dick)