SCENARIOS: Outlook for economic stimulus in Congress

(Reuters) - Democrats in the U.S. Congress have been calling for a second economic stimulus bill to help the ailing U.S. economy. While they have been pushing this unsuccessfully for months, they got a boost on Monday when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke embraced the general idea of another targeted government spending bill.

Early this year, Congress and the Bush administration worked to enact the first economic stimulus measure, which will spend about $152 billion this year, mainly in tax rebates for families and tax breaks for businesses.

But growing unemployment and home foreclosures amid the financial industry chaos that has ravaged workers' retirement savings, has spurred Democratic calls for another emergency jolt to the economy. Following Bernanke's statement, the White House signaled a new willingness to consider legislation, although it does not like the Democrats' approach.

Here are some factors that will have an impact on whether legislation passes soon and the possible elements of a stimulus bill:

* November 4

That's when the United States elects a new president, along with the 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives. One-third of the 100 Senate seats are also up for grabs.

If Democrats do well, as expected, and increase their majorities in Congress, they will be in better position to pursue their new economic stimulus bill. Obviously, their hand will be even stronger if fellow Democrat Barack Obama beats Republican John McCain in the presidential race.

* Economic indicators

All eyes will be on two reports, on October 30 and November 7, giving fresh snapshots on the health of the economy.

The first one will provide the government's initial estimate of economic performance in the third quarter of 2008. Private economists are forecasting a 0.5 percent contraction in gross domestic product. The second report will indicate whether the national unemployment rate has risen and whether U.S. employers continued to cut payrolls.

Both sets of numbers could lead economists to conclude that the country is gripped by a recession.

* "Lame duck" session

If Democrats do well on November 4 and the next few weeks provide fresh evidence the U.S. economy is sinking further, a stimulus bill is likely sooner rather than later.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi might call the House into a mid-November post-election meeting known as a "lame duck session." For those lawmakers who are defeated in the November 4 elections, it would be their last chance to legislate before the new Congress is sworn-in on January 3.

A lame duck session would only be useful if congressional Democrats and outgoing President George W. Bush thought negotiations would result in a bill passing both the House and Senate that Bush would sign into law.

But one senior Republican aide in the House speculated that Democrats have no intention of advancing a bill until "Obama is sworn in, if he's elected." The next Congress is seated January 3, 2009, and the new president will be sworn-in on January 20.

* The McCain factor

If McCain were to pull a come-from-behind victory and keep the White House in Republican hands, Democrats would have to deal with likely demands that a stimulus bill have less emphasis on government spending and more emphasis on tax cuts.

* The money

Depending on how bad the economy gets and how the elections turn out, any new stimulus package could range from around $50 billion to $150 billion or more.

* Stimulus options

Democrats want to pump billions of dollars into the economy, largely by jump-starting construction projects such as road and bridge building. They also say a government boost to consumer spending through expanded unemployment benefits and more help to the poor to pay for food and heating costs would get money into the economy quickly. States hard-hit by the rising costs of health care could get some help from a Democratic stimulus plan too.

Republicans argue that these are not efficient ways to boost the economy in the short-term and merely would add to federal budget deficits that already are hitting record levels.

Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Bernanke, during testimony to the House Budget Committee on Monday, offered some of his own stimulus ideas, including making it easier for borrowers to get credit and possibly having the government pay some mortgage fees.

(Reporting by Richard Cowan in Washington, Editing by Jackie Frank)