Chavez bandwagon help ebbs for Venezuela candidates

CARACAS (Reuters) - After a decade of applying a Midas touch to the campaigns of Venezuelan politicians, socialist President Hugo Chavez's endorsement may not be enough to put allies in office in regional elections this month.

Chavez's own approval ratings are high and his oil-financed social programs are popular. But many of his candidates are in tough races for state and city offices in a November 23 nationwide vote that will measure the depth of support for the anti-U.S. leader's self-styled socialist revolution in the OPEC nation.

In the last regional vote in 2004, Chavez's backing ensured his handpicked loyalists won in all but two of 22 states.

This time, voters could deliver as many as a third of governorships to the fragmented opposition in protest over the failure of local politicians to address basic problems ranging from potholes to violent crime, pollsters say.

Chavez, in power almost 10 years, has campaigned non-stop across the country, holding up candidates' hands on live television and telling supporters a vote for his party hopefuls is a vote for their popular president.

The vote could also determine whether Chavez tries again to push through a major constitutional reform to allow him to stay in office for as long as he wins elections -- a measure voters narrowly rejected last year in a referendum in his first major electoral defeat.

"Chavez supporters have not divorced themselves from the president but are simply doubting his capacity to make the best choice of candidates," said Oscar Schemel of the polling firm Hinterlaces, who has given advice to the opposition.

In Carabobo state, which has the third-largest city by population, a Chavez-backed ex-TV star with little political experience trails in polls for a vote to replace the unpopular outgoing governor, who was also picked by the president.

In a highly symbolic vote in Sucre, a Caracas district that includes one of Venezuela's largest slums, voters may also shun a Chavez confidant and veteran of his government as mayoral candidate after years of poor administration by another ally.

"We're with Chavez, but we're not going to vote for a candidate we don't like," said Cheo Manzun, a community activist in the southern state of Bolivar.

Manzun will vote against the current governor, backed by the president for the upcoming election, for not doing enough to fight crime or resolve chronic power outages.

DEFECTION, DISSATISFACTION

Polls show a decline in recent years in the number of people who call themselves unconditional Chavez supporters, and a handful of governors this year joined the opposition ranks in public defections.

"Obviously the bandwagon effect tends to diminish as a leader remains in office over time," said retired Gen. Alberto Muller, a presidential advisor and top official of Chavez's United Socialist Party of Venezuela.

Chavez's approval ratings remain close to 60 percent -- high for a leader who has been in office for almost a decade -- and he will still maintain a strong grip on regional politics even in best-case opposition scenarios.

But supporters are weary of crime that kills thousands of people each year, a chronic shortage of affordable housing, deficient garbage collection and frequent electricity outages.

Governors and mayors are suffering the backlash for such failings even as Chavez woos millions of poor backers with pledges to end capitalism and destroy U.S. "imperialism."

Chavez needs victories for his allies this month to reverse the momentum from the referendum defeat a year ago, which destroyed his aura of electoral invincibility.

After that loss, he promised to focus on bread-and-butter issues while slowing his drive to forge a socialist society. But says he will revive his push for reforms to help him remain in power when his current term ends in just over four years.

"The result of this election will offer concrete details about the chances on whether Chavez can get what he wants: to stay in office after 2013," said Luis Vicente Leon, director of public opinion firm Datanalisis, who polls for both sides.

(Additional reporting by Brian Ellsworth in San Felix; Writing by Brian Ellsworth; Editing by Saul Hudson and John O'Callaghan)