SCENARIOS: Where does the Tibetan movement go from here?

DHARAMSALA, India (Reuters) - More than 500 Tibetan exiles have gathered in Dharamsala, the headquarters of the Tibetan government-in-exile in northern India, to weigh options in their struggle for political rights in Tibet.

Here are some of the options they are discussing.

* FOLLOW THE "MIDDLE WAY": Many Tibetan exiles favor sticking to the Dalai Lama's "Middle Way," which has abandoned the goal of independence in favor of "genuine autonomy" within China.

Although Beijing has repeatedly rejected this idea, they want to consult the Dalai Lama on how to persuade China to come to the table again. They want more international pressure on China and to involve Chinese intellectuals in their struggle.

* GO FOR INDEPENDENCE: Many younger Tibetans believe the "Middle Way" is a dead end, and want a more radical, forceful and confrontational approach, including a renewed call for independence and stepped up protests.

This more aggressive approach risks inflaming nationalist sentiment in China and losing international sympathy.

* CONSIDER ARMED STRUGGLE: A small group believes there is no option but to consider armed struggle to liberate Tibet. But most Tibetans want to avoid bloodshed and, again, this could backfire by undermining support for the cause.

* SET A DEADLINE OF TWO YEARS

Some Tibetans say they are prepared to give the Middle Way another couple of years but want to set a deadline to the Chinese, after which they would adopt a more aggressive approach. But the drawbacks of being more forceful still apply.

* AWAIT CHANGE IN CHINA: Some Tibetans, including scholars and senior leaders, hope and believe time may yield a more favorable environment, either through a change in leadership in Beijing or the eventual fall of the Communist government.

Time is not necessarily on their side, though, with many worried their culture is being steadily undermined in Tibet and their land flooded by an influx of Han settlers.

The eventual death of the Dalai Lama will also leave the cause without its most recognized figure, and it is likely Beijing will try and muddy the waters by anointing its own successor.

It is also far from certain a democratic government in China would be significantly more sympathetic to the Tibetan cause.

* FORGET AUTONOMY AND FOCUS ON RIGHTS: Faced with Beijing's determination not to give ground on autonomy, Tibetans might be better off focusing on protecting their culture, fighting for fundamental human rights and specific issues like getting permission for Tibetan students to study abroad.

But few Tibetans in exile trust the Chinese or see these goals as being possible without autonomy.

(Compiled by Bappa Majumdar and Simon Denyer)