SCENARIOS: Thailand's chaos - what lies ahead

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's parliament is slated to convene Monday to choose a new prime minister after this week's dismissal of three ruling parties, teeing up another possible confrontation between pro- and anti-government forces.

The following scenarios look at how things might play out:

CONSTITUTIONAL PARALYSIS

- The court ruling barred Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat and many ministers from politics, but most rank-and-file People Power Party (PPP) MPs escaped the ban and are simply switching to Puea Thai (For Thailand), a "shell" party already lined up.

As long as the six-party ruling coalition led by the PPP/Puea Thai hangs together, as it is doing at the moment, it will easily have the parliamentary numbers needed to choose a new prime minister and thereby form the next administration.

The only problem will be getting parliament to convene.

Activists from the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which says the PPP is simply a front for ousted and exiled leader Thaksin Shinawatra, are sure to converge on parliament in their thousands, as they did last week, to try to force a postponement.

If parliament cannot meet, Thailand will slide deeper into chaos, with no government and the constitution near paralysis.

Various reports doing the rounds of Bangkok's chattering classes suggest the judiciary will break the deadlock by suspending the constitution and appointing an interim council, mainly of judges, to run the country.

STREET VIOLENCE

- The pro-government Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD) condemned the dissolution as a "judicial coup."

At any point in the coming days or weeks, DAAD anger at what it sees as Bangkok's royalist elite stealing control of the country from an elected government may boil over into an attack on the PAD or its allies in the opposition Democrat party.

Major street violence could trigger a military coup, even though the army, whose natural sympathies lie with the pro-palace PAD, is loath to intervene since it will then be the target of DAAD wrath.

AND THE AIRPORT?

- The court ruling allowed the PAD to claim victory and end its crippling, eight-day occupation of Bangkok's $4 billion Suvarnabhumi airport, allowing some flights to resume within a few hours.

Ominously, however, the PAD's leaders say they will continue to "monitor political developments," and will hit the streets again should they detect signs of Thaksin allies returning to power -- as is likely to happen Monday.

Their occupation of Suvarnabhumi cost them considerable popular support, but given the life-or-death nature of their struggle against Thaksin they could well try it again.

KING STEPS IN

- It is not known what King Bhumibol Adulyadej thinks about the PAD and its central claim to be protecting the monarchy from an alleged Thaksin plot to turn Thailand into a republic.

However, the king has openly criticised government economic policy and his wife, Queen Sirikit, attended the funeral of a protester killed in clashes with police in October, raising fears the palace's official political neutrality has been compromised.

Unlike last year, the king made no mention of the political crisis at a ceremony Tuesday, but will give a longer address to the nation Thursday, the eve of his 81st birthday.

His speeches in the past three years of high political tension have been nuanced and balanced, stressing the need for tolerance and national unity -- a plea that has plainly fallen on deaf ears.

(Editing by Darren Schuettler)