SCENARIOS: How could Mumbai attack affect Afghan war?

(Reuters) - Attacks on Mumbai have fueled concerns that rising tension with India will divert Pakistan's attention from fighting insurgents in its western tribal areas who are infiltrating Afghanistan to stage attacks on U.S., NATO and Afghan forces.

Here are some potential consequences of the Mumbai attacks for the Afghanistan war and the fight against al Qaeda and Taliban militants.

* PAKISTAN REDEPLOYS TROOPS TO ITS EASTERN BORDER

Washington is trying to defuse tensions that could lead to a redeployment to eastern Pakistan, which could ease pressure on the tribal-area militants in the west.

International forces in Afghanistan have been quiet about contingency planning, but Pakistan has sharply denounced any cross-border attacks by U.S.-allied forces against the militants, a big hurdle to increased U.S. military activity in western Pakistan.

An alternative is to seek cooperation from tribal leaders -- who also have chafed at the Pakistani army presence -- to expel insurgent fighters. This could work better than an army crackdown, said David Kilcullen, who has served as a counterterrorism adviser to U.S. Gen. David Petraeus and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has spoken with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari since the attacks, and the leaders are to meet again in Turkey on Friday. Afghan Defense Ministry spokesman Gen. Zaher Azmi said: "We are hopeful that the issue and difficulty do not reach that stage (of a relocation of Pakistani troops). Our expectation is cooperation in the fight against terrorism."

* NO CHANGE IN PAKISTANI TROOP MOVEMENTS

India says it is not planning any military response to the Mumbai attacks.

If India does not mobilize its troops or strike at camps believed to have trained the attackers, Pakistan would be unlikely to send troops to its border with India and could keep them fighting in the tribal areas.

Killcullen said it was possible India would strike at Pakistan. However, he said, "it's unlikely that they would -- if they did it would be tantamount to the outbreak of war."

* PAKISTAN AND INDIA TOGETHER DEFEAT LASHKAR-E-TAIBA

Such cooperation against the Pakistani-based group that U.S. and Indian intelligence officials say is responsible for the Mumbai attacks would keep pressure on al Qaeda and Taliban in tribal areas and could reduce overall tensions. Some analysts have seen this as a possibility, with the scale of the Mumbai attacks forcing the two rival states to recognize a common interest in fighting the militants.

However, Pakistani military officers sympathetic with Lashkar-e-Taiba are believed to have resisted any crackdown.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in Islamabad on Thursday that Pakistan had given assurances of its commitment to round up anyone connected with the attack.

One test is whether Pakistan meets India's demand to hand over 20 wanted men said to be living in Pakistan.

"If there is progress made between the two countries on the Mumbai investigation, then you might see progress in other areas of their relationship," said a U.S. counterterrorism official.

* THE TALIBAN SUPPORTS PAKISTAN IN A STANDOFF WITH INDIA

Such an alliance would further ease pressure on Islamist insurgents in the tribal areas.

Several Taliban commanders have offered a ceasefire with the Pakistan Army in the event India attacks Pakistan. The offer alone has drawn praise from some army officials, who described Taliban commanders as "patriots" for making it, according to a U.S. monitor of Pakistani and Islamist media.

The U.S. counterterrorism official dismissed the offer as opportunism. "I don't think it really helps them out. People see it for what it is," he said.

(Reporting by Randall Mikkelsen, editing by Philip Barbara)