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INSTANT VIEW: Final Q3 GDP unrevised -0.5 percent

NEW YORK
Tue Dec 23, 2008 2:04pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The economy shrank at a 0.5 percent annual pace in the third quarter as expected after consumers and businesses cut spending and the country's recession gathered steam, government data showed on Tuesday.

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KEY POINTS: * The Commerce Department, in its final revision, said the decline in gross domestic product in the third quarter versus the previous three months was the steepest since the third quarter of 2001, in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks on the United States. * Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted the report would show GDP declined by an unrevised 0.5 percent in the third quarter. * Consumer spending shrank by 3.8 percent for the sharpest pull-back since 1980, when a global oil crisis tipped the economy toward a prolonged slowdown, while investment in equipment and software slumped 7.5 percent for the largest decline since early 2002.

COMMENTS:

MATT ESTEVE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADER, TEMPUS CONSULTING, WASHINGTON:

"It was widely expected and that's why you really haven't seen much of a reaction. Obviously negative GDP growth in the third quarter is expected and negative GDP growth for the fourth quarter is expected, which brings recession to a full 12 months. The question is: how long will it take before we start seeing flat or positive growth again. One of the driving factors behind currency trades right now is comparative strength of an economy, between the U.S. economy, the euro zone economy and the British economy."

ROY WILLIAMS, CEO, PRESTIGE WEALTH MANAGEMENT GROUP, PENNINGTON, NEW JERSEY:

The third quarter GDP data "was nothing that we didn't know, with a contraction of 0.5 percent as expected. I think the fourth quarter contraction will be more severe because corporations hoarded money when the credit markets ground to a halt, and the first quarter of next year will even be worse."

KURT KARL, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, SWISS RE, NEW YORK: "Not much of a surprise here and markets seem muted. But after all today's reading is the final one and not a revision. Still, I find this number really good for the third quarter. The past couple of quarters have been really weak and if anything, I'm afraid it may indicate a really bad fourth quarter. Some economists are forecasting a 6 percent drop in GDP this quarter. Our forecast is for minus 4.2 percent."

DAVID WYSS, CHIEF ECONOMIST, STANDARD & POOR'S, NEW YORK, NEW YORK:

"Very boring since they didn't change anything and that was pretty much expected. There were some offsetting revisions here and there, but nothing of any huge magnitude. It continues to show basically the same story, which is people stopped spending. A 3.8 percent decline in consumer spending was most of the story."

DAVID ADER, HEAD, GOVERNMENT BOND STRATEGY, RBS GREENWICH CAPITAL:

"Inconsequential. The revisions were small at best. The deflator was slightly friendlier."

"This has no consequence. The Fed did its drama last week and these small revisions are well within the bands of what the market has priced in."

"This will have zero, zilch, no impact on markets."

JIM AWAD, MANAGING DIRECTOR, ZEPHYR MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK:

"In the first read, it doesn't look like any major change. Investors are really focused on the fourth-quarter, the sell-off was at the end of the third quarter. This isn't a market mover. It's weak, but not materially weaker than expected. Investors are more concerned with what the fourth-quarter numbers might show. They're bleak, but you might get a slight seasonal rally in the middle of the downturn."

MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: U.S. equity index futures little changed after GDP figure unrevised at -0.5 percent. BONDS: U.S. Treasury bond prices little changed. DOLLAR: U.S. dollar barely changed versus major rivals.



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