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INSTANT VIEW: Jobless claims at 26-year high and spending down

NEW YORK
Wed Dec 24, 2008 8:54am EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits jumped by 30,000 to a 26-year peak last week, government data on Wednesday showed, as the country's year-long recession continued to chill the labor market.

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U.S. consumers cut spending for a fifth straight month during November and their incomes shrank, according to a government report on Wednesday that pointed to deepening recessionary pressures.

New U.S. orders for long-lasting manufactured goods fell 1 percent in November, a less severe drop than anticipated though it followed a steeply revised plunge in October orders, a government report on Wednesday showed.

COMMENTS:

JOHN SPINELLLO, SENIOR VP, CHIEF FIXED-INCOME TECHNICAL STRATEGIST, JEFFERIES & CO., NEW YORK:

"There was a little bit of a recovery in durable goods orders. Jobless claims were a lot higher than expected. There's not much change in the bond market. The 10s and 30-years are a little higher."

LOU BRIEN, MARKET STRATEGIST, DRW TRADING GROUP, CHICAGO:

"Probably the jobs data will be most impactful. Treasuries have shown a very muted response across the board."

"On the other hand, durable goods orders were surprisingly strong, after a significant revision downward the previous month."

DAVID SLOAN, ECONOMIST, 4CAST LTD, NEW YORK:

"The jobless claims clearly are very bad, but the durables were not as bad as expected. There seems to be some resilience in investment in durables with the rise in non-defense capital orders ex-aircraft. I don't think there is anything here to change the big picture -- it is slightly encouraging on the durable goods side."

MICHAEL WOOLFOLK, SENIOR CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON, NEW YORK:

"Initial jobless claims came out worse than expected and it's clear the U.S. labor market continues to deteriorate. The reason why there wasn't a negative reaction to claims this morning was because we do have some other positive developments that were released at the same time. Durable goods were better than expected, and in the personal income and spending report, inflation was better than expected and we know that crude oil and gasoline prices have dropped once again."

MICHAEL MORAN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DAIWA SECURITIES AMERICA, NEW YORK:

"The decline we had was smaller than expected and concentrated in aircraft. Other areas posted reasonably good results given the economic setting. The increase in orders excluding transportation of 1.2 percent showed that most other areas registered increases in new orders. Still, the pickup in orders in November does not meaningful alter the underlying weak trend, but it was a relief to see at least a pause in the downward movement."

DANIEL KATZIVE, DIRECTOR, GLOBAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE, CREDIT SUISSE, NEW YORK:

"I don't think we are going to have any major reassessment of the U.S. economic situation based on today's data. We had a slightly better-than-expected durables report but higher weekly claims. All in all, the scenario remains pretty weak." "There's very little trading and it seems the only signs of activity are concentrated on euro crosses. The trend remain for most of those crosses to go higher. The pound will keep weakening and we are within striking distance of parity with the euro. I wouldn't be surprised if we touch parity before the year end."

MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: U.S. equity index futures were little changed, pointing to a flat open on Wall Street. BONDS: U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds held steady at higher levels. DOLLAR: U.S. dollar remained lower against the euro and yen.



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