FACTBOX: Key moves in Russian ruble exchange rate
MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Russian central bank widened the ruble trading band for the seventh time in December on Wednesday, and for the 10th time since it embarked on a path of controlled currency devaluation in mid-November.
The ruble has now lost more than 15 percent versus the euro-dollar basket from its historic peak, set just before a war with Georgia in August combined with a global rout in emerging markets to trigger capital flight from Russia.
Following are key facts on the ruble and central bank intervention.
BASKET
Russia's central bank introduced a euro/dollar basket for tracking the ruble's course on February 1, 2005, initially made up of 0.1 euros and 0.9 dollars. The euro's share was gradually increased to reach the current 0.45 euros and 0.55 dollars composition on February 8, 2007.
The widening of the band has taken the ruble to its weakest level versus the basket since its current composition was set.
FOCUS
The central bank used keen investor appetite for the ruble to allow gradual appreciation as a means of fighting inflation until early August, when the trend reversed.
Authorities have now said their immediate focus has switched from fighting inflation to supporting Russia's economy and markets through the global financial crisis and credit crunch.
RESERVES
Russia's gold and forex reserves, the world's third largest, give it a powerful weapon against speculators betting on a weaker ruble.
But the value of the cash pile has fallen by over a quarter since early August, to stand at $435.4 billion on December 12.
Analysts have said such rapid decreases in reserves are dangerous, especially given weaker oil prices that slow inflows of new money and potentially signal demands on reserves from future years' budgets.
Standard & Poor's on December 8 became the first ratings agency to downgrade Russia in a decade.
KEY ROUBLE MOVES
Jun. 26, 2007: appreciation of roughly 10 kopecks; central bank's new bid level seen around 29.81 rubles
August 8, 2007: appreciation of roughly 10 kopecks to 29.71
August 9, 2007: appreciation of roughly five kopecks or 0.17 percent; central bank's bid level seen at around 29.61 rubles
Jun. 10, 2008: appreciation of roughly 12 kopecks; central bank's bid level established around 29.51 rubles
Jul. 9, 2008: appreciation of roughly 10 kopecks
Jul. 14, 2008: appreciation of roughly 15 kopeck
Jul. 15, 2008: brief appreciation to 29.28 rubles; dealers say central bank's bid level seen at around 29.25 rubles
August 4, 2008: appreciation to new high of 29.26 rubles, though central bank's bid level is not breached
August 8-11, 2008: ruble sells off sharply during Russia's military conflict with Georgia; central bank sells an estimated $12-13 billion to stop basket weakening beyond 30.10.
Sep. 4, 2008: having let ruble weaken beyond 30.10 on Sep. 3, central bank steps in to defend 30.40-41; it continues to defend that level with regular interventions in following weeks.
November 11, 2008: ruble is allowed to weaken, stabilizing around 30.70-71, with the central bank saying it has widened the trading corridor by 30 kopecks in each direction; move comes a day after central bank chairman Sergei Ignatyev said he did not rule out more flexibility in the exchange rate.
November 24, 2008: central bank widens corridor again by 30 kopecks in each direction, allowing the ruble to weaken to 31
November 28, 2008: another band widening, ruble eases to 31.33
December 5, 2008: ruble weakens 31.63 a day after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ruled out sharp FX rate moves but said the ruble will fluctuate with commodity prices
December 11, 2008: the band is widened to around 31.90
December 15, 2008: the ruble weakens to around 32.20
December 17, 2008: the ruble weakens further by 45 kopecks -- compared to 30 kopecks during the previous six moves -- to around 32.65, seen as the central bank's new support level.
December 18, 2008: the ruble weakens to around 33.11, the first time devaluations occurred on two consecutive days
December 22, 2008: the ruble weakens to around 33.45
December 24, 2008: the ruble weakens as far as 33.79
OUTLOOK
Further ruble weakness is expected, with some analysts saying a large one-off move will eventually be unavoidable, though others reckon the current pace of devaluations is fast enough to have a good chance of being effective.
The median forecast in a Reuters poll published on December 23 showed the ruble at 36.24 versus the basket and 31.01 versus the dollar by end-2009.
Economy Ministry's 2009 dollar/ruble forecasts and euro/dollar assumptions suggest the ruble will be in the 34-36 range versus the basket next year.
One-year non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) show the ruble at around 35 to the dollar.
(Compiled by Toni Vorobyova and Gleb Bryanski; editing by Tony Austin)
