North Koreans to vote on assembly, succession in focus

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Koreans elect a new rubber stamp parliament on Sunday that analysts say will help start the process for grooming a successor to leader Kim Jong-il, who is suspected of suffering a stroke last year.

The parliament will give Kim, 67, a mandate to press on with militarizing the impoverished country as well as paving the way to transfer power to one of his three known sons, experts said.

The new line-up will bring in people who will help groom a successor, a process that could take years to win enough support from the powerful military and communist party.

Kim's poor health has triggered speculation over who might eventually take over a nation that tested a nuclear device in 2006 and has raised tensions recently by threatening a missile launch. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last month warned of a possible power struggle over who may succeed Kim.

"There is no question it is a period of transition in terms of having to address the succession," said Cho Myung-chul of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy in Seoul.

"To lay the groundwork, there must be efforts to create more favorable conditions for the successor," added Cho, an economist from the North who fled to the South in 1994, referring to the country's dire economic conditions and reduced aid inflows.

An intelligence source with knowledge of the workings of the North's leadership said Kim had tapped his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, to take over Asia's only communist dynasty.

Some analysts on North Korea have said there was little evidence any choice had been made yet.

The Swiss-educated Jong-un is thought to be about 26. Kim's oldest son Jong-nam mostly lives abroad and is seen as out of touch, while the second son is believed to lack the ambition, intelligence and ruthlessness of Jong-un, the source said.

State founder Kim Il-sung named Kim Jong-il as his successor in 1974 and groomed him for years. Kim Jong-il took over when his father died in 1994 but it still took him years to win over powerful factions, experts said.

There has been speculation in South Korean media that Jong-un, or the two other sons, could be selected as delegates to the assembly, marking their first major public posts, but government sources said they did not see this as likely.

COMPULSORY VOTE

North Koreans are required by law to vote for the assembly and in previous polls have provided nearly 100 percent support for candidates approved by Pyongyang's leaders. The elections are used to realign the state's hierarchy.

"The anticipation is that Kim Jong-il will shuffle and expand the National Defence Commission," said Cho Min, an expert on the North's leadership at the South's Korea Institute of National Unification (KINU).

Kim heads the eight-member commission, which comprises military officers and is effectively the most powerful organ in North Korea. It would play a crucial role in any succession.

The assembly session that typically meets in April each year is a highly choreographed affair, usually focused on budget matters, where legislation is passed with unanimous approval.

But the first session that will convene after the March 8 election is likely to also mark the highlight of a leadership shakeup that began earlier this year with appointments to top economic posts and the replacement of the defense minister.

Kim is all but certain to be re-elected as chairman of the National Defence Commission and new members could be named to the body.

The new session comes as the finances of North Korea, which is suffering chronic food shortages, are being squeezed hard by a loss of aid over the country's decision to drag its heels on commitments to dismantle its nuclear arms program.

Benefactor South Korea cut off a free flow of unconditional handouts a year ago in a bid to make the North behave better.

"North Korea, when it is in difficult times, tends to take backward steps," said economist Cho, speaking about the economic policy direction Pyongyang is likely to take.

Measures more faithful to socialist ideals are likely to be adopted than experimental steps similar to ones taken in previous years to open up its controlled economy slightly, added Cho.

The election of the 12th session of the assembly with a five-year mandate had been scheduled for August but was delayed after Kim was suspected of having a stroke at the time.

(Editing by Jon Herskovitz and Dean Yates)