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Q+A: Why is North Korea making more threats?

SEOUL
Mon Mar 9, 2009 1:49am EDT

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said on Monday it had put its armed forces on full combat readiness as U.S. and South Korean troops began annual military drills.

World  |  South Korea  |  North Korea

The comments are the latest in increasingly threatening words from the isolated state which is preparing to test-fire a long-range missile that could, in theory, fly as far as the U.S. state of Alaska.

Here are questions and answers on why North Korea is raising the tone of its anger and what it might hope to achieve.

WHAT IS BEHIND THE LATEST THREATS?

Pyongyang has announced plans to launch a long-range missile. But it has run into fierce opposition from the international community which is trying to coax it away from building a nuclear arsenal and considers the proposed launch as part of that weapons program. A launch would also be in breach of U.N. sanctions against North Korea.

North Korea says the rocket is part of a peaceful space program and that any attempt to shoot it down would be an act of war.

It first fired off its Taepodong-2 missile in 2006 but that fizzled out just seconds after launch. A successful missile launch would be a significant boost at home for hard-line ruler Kim Jong-il, who is suspected of suffering a stroke last August.

ARE THERE OTHER ISSUES INVOLVED?

The latest threats come on top of months of furious criticism of the conservative South Korean government which, during its first year in office, has effectively cut off aid that once used to pour north across the heavily armed border. Seoul has said the aid will resume, accompanied by billions in investment, if Pyongyang stops trying to make atomic weapons.

It has also told the North to improve its human rights record, a touchy subject for a state analysts say locks away tens of thousands of political prisoners.

The comments from Seoul have infuriated the North, where the legitimacy of the leadership rests on being seen at home as the dominant and legitimate power on the divided peninsula.

Many analysts believe Pyongyang is also using the mounting threats to grab attention of the young U.S. government under President Barack Obama and to use them as leverage to win some concessions in the years-long negotiations over its nuclear weapons program.

Those negotiations among major powers in the region have been stalled for months, largely over a dispute with Washington over how to verify that Pyongyang is genuinely tearing down its atomic facilities.

A number of North Korea-watchers believe that it would only give up the weapons program for a very high price. That might include full diplomatic relations with the United States, a formal peace treaty to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War, and a pledge not to seek regime change as well as massive aid.

WILL NORTH KOREA ATTACK?

Most analysts doubt the North, with its ill-equipped military, would risk launching a full-scale attack against the South, whose own sizeable army is backed by the U.S. military, including some 28,000 troops on South Korean soil.

But it does have a large amount of artillery pointing at Seoul, just 70 km (50 miles) from the border, that could cause massive damage to an urban area that is home to some 25 million people and capital of Asia's fourth largest economy.

In the past few years, there have been two deadly naval clashes around the two Koreas' disputed sea border on the west of the peninsula.

The North has also, from time to time, raised tensions by making incursions inside the demilitarized buffer zone that divides it from the South.

(Editing by Dean Yates)



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