Proliferation challenge extends far beyond North Korea

By Paul Eckert, Asia Correspondent - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - North Korea's second nuclear test, which has the Obama administration scrambling for an effective response, poses a far greater proliferation challenge than merely figuring how to make Pyongyang change course.

Whether the United States can translate international condemnation of North Korea's second nuclear test in 2-1/2 years into concrete action will affect U.S. allies in Asia, nuclear powers like Pakistan and India and countries with suspected nuclear ambitions, such as Iran.

"North Korea's thrown something in our face that we have to deal with now and it could have tremendous ramifications for the ability to stop proliferation in the future," said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a nuclear disarmament think tank.

The former arms inspector said international failure to respond resolutely could embolden Iran in its suspected quest for a nuclear bomb, but also could see nuclear-armed Pakistan mimic the North in a test that might provoke India in turn.

State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said Washington sought a tough U.N. Security Council response and wanted to make North Korea "pay a price" through a mixture of multilateral and U.S. measures, which he did not spell out.

A U.S. Treasury Department official said that agency had broad authority to take action against North Korea and was weighing options for imposing financial sanctions.

The international record with North Korea's missile and nuclear tests shows that is easier said than done.

"North Korea proliferates to make money so you have to worry that in isolation, under sanctions, it will do more of it," said Albright. He noted that Pyongyang helped Syria build a nuclear reactor while under many international sanctions.

MOTIVES DEBATED

North Korea's reasons for defiant test range from tightening leader Kim Jong-il's grip on power ahead of an expected succession by his third son, to getting U.S. attention to simply building a better atomic arsenal, say analysts.

Henry Sokolski, head of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center in Washington, said North Korea had made it clear it could perfect a Hiroshima-sized atomic bomb and that it was not willing to negotiate it away.

Monday's underground test yielded a blast of about several kilotons and was aimed at "improving their arsenal" -- a constant goal of the North Korean military after an October 2006 test that was less than successful, said Albright.

However, Sharon Squassoni of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said North Korea had enough plutonium to do multiple tests if it were really keen to improve its weapons and the test was likely driven by Kim's power transfer plan.

"If it is really about succession then we will not be able to get them to the table," she said.

"RECIPE FOR WAR"