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Q+A-What next for Britain's battered government?

LONDON
Wed Jun 3, 2009 9:35am EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has been undermined by the resignations of two cabinet ministers on the eve of European and local elections, raising fresh questions on Wednesday about his own leadership.

World

What do the next few days hold for the Labour government and Brown, battered by recession and an expenses scandal and facing a general election within a year?

WHAT IMPACT WILL THURSDAY'S ELECTIONS HAVE?

Brown's Labour Party is facing a rout.

Its share of the vote in European elections could fall below 20 percent and it risks finishing in fourth place behind the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and the anti-EU UK Independence Party. There are also elections for local authorities in 34 areas in England.

The timing of the count will prolong the agony for Labour because local election results will dribble out late on Thursday and into Friday, while the European results are not due until after 2000 GMT on Sunday when all 27 EU members will have voted.

WHEN WILL THE RESHUFFLE HAPPEN?

It could be as early as Friday.

Communities Secretary Hazel Blears and Home Secretary Jacqui Smith have both already announced they will quit in a reshuffle expected in the next few days, undermining Brown's authority and making it look like he is not in charge of his own party.

A reshuffle as early as Friday could draw the sting from some of the negative headlines from the local election results. As well as replacing Blears and Smith, both tarnished by the expenses scandal, there has been speculation that Brown ally Ed Balls will be promoted to replace finance minister Alistair Darling. There is also talk, however, that Darling will resign from the government if he is offered a less prominent post.

Business Secretary Peter Mandelson has been tipped as a possible successor to Foreign Secretary David Miliband and the recall of a former cabinet veteran like David Blunkett or John Reid could help to restore party discipline.

Both Miliband and Mandelson have said they are happy to continue in their current roles.

COULD THE RESHUFFLE PROMPT A LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE?

It's a possibility, and this is a dangerous time for Brown.

Blears, who had criticised Brown in recent weeks, might decide to try to gain the backing of 70 Labour MPs needed to mount a leadership challenge to Brown. She would have no chance of winning such a contest but could draw out a more heavyweight candidate, with media-savvy Health Secretary Alan Johnson seen as the favorite to succeed Brown.

The reshuffle carries a second danger for Brown because a cabinet minister who does not want to change jobs could break ranks and go public with a call for the prime minister to quit.

WILL THERE BE AN EARLY GENERAL ELECTION?

This hinges on Brown's fate.

The timing of the general election is up to the prime minister. If Brown survives the current turmoil, he is likely to hold on until May 2010 in the hope that tentative signs of economic recovery will strengthen and that his poll ratings will improve.

If Brown is unseated as Labour leader, his successor would face huge pressure to call a general election (although this in itself could be a deterrent to any serious challenger given current opinion polls show Labour heading for a landslide defeat).

Brown himself succeeded Tony Blair mid-term in 2007 but commentators say it would be difficult to head off calls for a vote this time, especially with the authority of parliament as a whole eroded by the expenses scandal.

Elections in Britain are normally held in spring or early summer but there is a precedent for an October general election before the start of the British winter. Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson called an election in October 1974 after a vote earlier in the year produced a hung parliament.

(Editing by Kate Kelland and Janet McBride)



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