Britain faces severe warming by 2080s: study

LONDON (Reuters) - Climate change could lead to a rise in average summer temperatures in parts of Britain that is nearly double the level which the European Union and others say is dangerous, a study said on Thursday.

The government-backed report warned that southeast England could see a 3.9 Celsius (7 Fahrenheit) rise in average summer temperatures by the 2080s unless global action was taken to curb planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions.

That would lead to heatwaves, droughts, lower crop yields and more pests and disease, the long-awaited report by Britain's leading climate change scientists said.

The European Union wants global average temperatures not to exceed 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, although many see that target as being increasingly hard to meet.

Britain's Environment Secretary Hilary Benn said it was too late to reverse the damage likely to be caused over the next 20 to 30 years by emissions already released into the atmosphere.

However, he said countries could still influence what happens in the 2080s and beyond if they agreed to cut emissions at international climate change talks in Copenhagen in December.

"These results are sobering and we know that these changes will affect every aspect of our daily lives," Benn told parliament. "Only by cutting emissions through a global deal in Copenhagen can we avoid some of these extreme changes."

The report was released two days after U.S. President Barack Obama's government warned that climate change had already caused "visible impacts" in the United States, especially for farmers and the energy industry.

SWELTERING LONDON

The UK study forecast a 2-6C (3.6-10.8F) rise in temperatures across the southeast by the 2080s, with a most likely figure of 3.9C. London temperatures could reach 40C.

If emissions were allowed to rise significantly, the report's authors said average temperatures could get even higher.

Some parts of England may see a 22 percent cut in average summer rainfall, while the northwest could have 16 percent less rain during winter. The sea level in the southeast is projected to rise by 18 cm (7.1 inches) by 2040 and 36 cm by 2080.

The changing weather could lead to more flooding, storm surges at ports in eastern England and a greater risk to farmers from drought, crop diseases and heat stress among livestock.

However, the study said businesses might benefit from more demand for products to help cope with the changing environment, the ability to grow different crops and an increase in tourism.

The UK Climate Impacts Programme used computers owned by Britain's Met Office, the government weather center, to estimate how the climate will change due to global warming if action is not taken to cut emissions. Its last report was in 2002.

Scientists cautioned that their study was "not a long-range weather forecast," rather a set of possible scenarios based on the best available science. It can be found at ukcp09.defra.gov.uk

(Editing by Mark Trevelyan)