Q+A: What outcome for Pakistan's South Waziristan battle?

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - U.S. drones prowled the sky over South Waziristan on Wednesday as Pakistan's army prepares an all-out assault on Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud.

On Tuesday, one of the pilotless U.S. aircraft attacked a Mehsud stronghold, killing about 70 militants. Mehsud has been accused of orchestrating a bloody campaign of bombings, including the 2007 assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

Following are some questions and answers on the Pakistani campaign against Mehsud in South Waziristan on the Afghan border.

WHAT ROLE WILL U.S. FORCES PLAY IN THE PAKISTANI BATTLE?

The U.S. drone strike on Tuesday, on a funeral for one of six militants killed in a similar strike earlier in the day, would appear to indicate increasing coordination between the United States and Pakistan. But Pakistan is unlikely to admit that openly in a country where many people are suspicious of a close alliance with the United States in its campaign against militancy. Pakistan officially objects to U.S. drone strikes, saying they violate its sovereignty and complicate efforts to win over a patchwork of ethnic Pashtun tribes in its northwest. The United States says the drone strikes are carried out under an agreement which allows Pakistani leaders to decry the attacks in public. Pakistan denies that. The chance of U.S. ground troops getting involved in fighting militants on Pakistani territory is minimal. Pakistan has ruled that out, although U.S. forces have indicated they would intrude if they were after a "high-value target," such as al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. U.S. and Afghan troops are likely to be on guard on the other side of the border in case Mehsud and his men try to flee into Afghanistan. But U.S. and Afghan forces have never attempted to seal the porous, mountainous border and it is unclear how many of the thousands of U.S. reinforcements arriving in Afghanistan will be posted there.

WILL IT BE A TOUGH BATTLE?

Yes. Mehsud and his thousands of well-armed followers will put up a very tough fight in the rugged region where they have had years to prepare defences. The army has Mehsud bottled up and it is likely to rely on its air power, which the United Sates can be expected to augment with its drones. Mehsud has a network of supporters in towns and cities and is likely to order suicide bombers to attack. Ultimately, provided the political will of the government and the support of the public remain strong, the well-trained army should prevail.

WILL THE OFFENSIVE BRING A NEW WAVE OF DISPLACED PEOPLE?

Yes. Already about 45,000 civilians have fled from South Waziristan as clashes have intensified. A spokesman for the government unit overseeing relief efforts said this week he expected at least 60,000 would flee. The United Nations says it is drawing up plans to help, although its workers have no access to the part of North West Frontier Province where the displaced are likely to enter because of security worries. Already, about 2.5 million people have been displaced by fighting in the northwest since late last year, most since the military launched an offensive in the Swat valley early last month.

CAN THE STATE ESTABLISH ITS WRIT?

South Waziristan is one of seven ethnic Pashtun tribal agencies that make up the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along the Afghan border. FATA has never been under the full control of any Pakistani government, or of former British colonial rulers. Under a system inherited from the British, a government "political agent" administers through tribal elders who are meant to maintain the peace. Few of Pakistan's federal laws apply and outside interference is resented. The Taliban have killed numerous pro-government elders, creating a leadership vacuum which they have filled. Even if the Taliban are uprooted from South Waziristan, government authorities are likely to struggle to impose their rule in an area long used to autonomy. Some analysts argue that the archaic special status of the FATA should be scrapped and the area brought into North West Frontier Province and ruled by the same laws as everywhere else. The government has also stressed the need for economic development in the impoverished FATA.

(Editing by Paul Tait)