INSTANT VIEW: U.S. GDP shrinks less in Q1; claims rise

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy shrank slightly less in early 2009 than previously thought, the government reported on Thursday, though there was widespread weakness in activity and demand was soft.

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week and the number staying on the rolls after collecting an initial week of aid also edged higher, government data on Thursday showed.

KEY POINTS:

GDP * Gross domestic product, or GDP, that measures total output within U.S. borders dropped at a 5.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter - a third straight decline after shrinking 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter last year and 0.5 percent in the third quarter.

CLAIMS * Initial claims for state unemployment insurance increased by 15,000 to a greater-than-expected seasonally adjusted 627,000 from a revised 612,000 the week before, the Labor Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast claims to drop to 600,000 from a previously reported 608,000.

COMMENTS:

ROBERT BRUSCA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, FACT AND OPINION ECONOMICS, NEW YORK:

JOBLESS CLAIMS: "There is some back-tracking. There are some car dealerships being closed, but things overall are still better. If we want recovery, we want to see improvements to continue. There is some goods news on continued claims."

NICK BENNENBROEK, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, WELLS FARGO, NEW YORK:

"The GDP data was a non-event. But the jobless claims were a slight disappointment with the increase in both headline and continuing claims. The last few weeks we had seen some improvement on that front. Overall, the dollar strengthened on the data because there was some pressure on equity futures and a slight pullback in risk appetite. That said the market reaction was not decisive."

CHRISTOPHER LOW, CHIEF ECONOMIST, FTN FINANCIAL, NEW YORK:

"What stood out to be was the rise in jobless claims. That was a disappointment. Claims are still trending downward, peaking at end of March, but the improvement is slow. In fact, it might be slow enough that it's not yet a clear signal of recovery.

"As far as GDP goes, the headline number is better, down 5.5 percent instead of 5.7, but most of the components were a little worst. Consumption was revised down, fixed investment was revised down. The bulk of the improvement came from a smaller drop in inventory than originally reported. That means, obviously, that there'll be more inventory to work through in the second quarter, which means that GDP growth won't be quite as good in the second quarter.

"Most of the numbers were close enough that I don't think they'll have a huge impact one way or the other on the markets today."

MICHAEL JAMES, SENIOR TRADER, WEDBUSH MORGAN, LOS ANGELES:

"The higher initial claims is probably taking some of the wind out of sails of the better durable goods numbers yesterday."

The numbers from this morning "are probably skewed a little more negatively with the trends in initial claims continuing to be up."

"The negativity that's been overhanging the market will likely persist, and it will be tough to make upside progress in the market in the short term without a string of more positive economic numbers.

"Just getting less bad isn't going to do if for the market at these levels.

"Nothing from today's numbers nor from the FOMC commentary yesterday is going to change that less positive sentiment that's been prevailing for the last week."

DAVID RESLER, CHIEF ECONOMIST, NOMURA SECURITIES, NEW YORK:

"I've been hoping that one of these weeks we'd get a number printing below 600,000, it looks like I'm going to have to wait another week.

"It's just another indication that the labor market has improved from the worst of the layoffs of a few months back, but it's not improving greatly or rapidly. there are still a lot of layoffs out there showing up in weekly jobless claims."

PETER BOOCKVAR, EQUITY STRATEGIST, MILLER TABAK & CO, NEW YORK:

"The GDP data is extremely old news and will have no relevance for the market today.

"The claims data takes some of the air out of the hope that the labor market was improving, which came as initial claims fell below 600,000 and as continuing claims dropped. This will send a message that the labor market remains difficult and that it'll be a while until we get some recovery."

GARY THAYER, SENIOR ECONOMIST, WELLS FARGO ADVISORS, ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI:

"The Q1 final GDP numbers involved only minor revisions as is usual on the final revision. The economic data we're seen so far for the second quarter suggests the preliminary number for the second quarter will show a modest decline, maybe half the rate we saw in the first quarter.

"Jobless claims, though they rose in the latest week, are still holding in a range, suggesting that we are seeing some stabilization in the labor market, but still a very weak economy."

MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures slip BONDS: U.S. Treasury debt prices trim losses on the long end DOLLAR: U.S. dollar pares gains versus yen