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HIGHLIGHTS: China cautiously optimistic after robust Q2 GDP

BEIJING
Thu Jul 16, 2009 1:33am EDT

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's annual GDP growth quickened to 7.9 percent in the second quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Thursday.

China

Following are the highlights of a news conference by NBS spokesman Li Xiaochao.

REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC

First-half growth had laid a solid foundation for hitting the government's full-year growth target of 8 percent.

"Our economy is continuing to turn for the better and there are more and more positive factors."

"We see more people shopping and prices beginning to rise. The economy is recovering and the recovery is intensifying. All the government's policies have worked together to help us overcome the financial crisis."

"The highlights in domestic demand are the growth of apartment sales and growth of auto sales."

"We have also strengthened efforts to coordinate growth among different regions. Investment in central and western China has increased very strongly."

REASONS TO BE CAUTIOUS

"Policies to maintain growth have achieved very clear results, but the foundation for recovery is still not solid."

"The recovery is not fully balanced so there are some regions that have not done as well as others."

"Currently, prices are still falling, overall demand is still weak and economic growth is below potential. Some industries still face overcapacity and the capacity utilization is still low."

"Right now we are in the peak season for new jobseekers entering the market. But our economy is suffering the impact of the global financial crisis."

"Though the economy is recovering, it is still unable to create enough jobs. We are facing serious pressure and the central government has particularly stressed the need to implement active employment policies."

BREAKDOWN OF FIRST-HALF GDP GROWTH OF 7.1 PCT YR/YR

-- investment +6.2 percentage points

-- consumption +3.8 percentage points

-- net exports -2.9 percentage points

"To do quarter-on-quarter statistics is difficult, requiring more data collection. We are studying from abroad about how to do this but it will still take time to learn."

SEEKING STRUCTURAL CHANGE

"We should proactively take opportunities to promote structural change and link the goal of maintaining growth with that of reforming the economy."

FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION

"Summer grain output has been on the rise for six consecutive years. As we know, prices are closely related to grain supply in China."

"Since the start of this year, international raw material prices have been rising, which has had a certain impact on China's prices ... We should see that the month-on-month industrial factory-gate prices have been on the rise in the past three months."

"Prices and credit growth do have a very close relationship, they are in direct proportion, so we should keep a close eye on bank lending."

"Both inflation and deflation can hurt the sound growth of our national economy and we want neither. We want to maintain reasonable price rises."

EXCERPTS FROM OPENING STATEMENT

"The base for recovery is still weak. Growth momentum is unstable. The recovery pattern is unbalanced and thus there are still uncertain and volatile factors in the recovery process."

(Reporting by Zhou Xin and Simon Rabinovitch; Editing by Ben Blanchard)



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