Carmakers see stability and uncertainty
DETROIT/PARIS (Reuters) - Ford, Renault, Peugeot, Toyota and BMW signaled on Monday that the automotive sector is stabilizing, but most stopped short of predicting a rebound next year.
Ford Motor Co (F.N) surprised Wall Street with a quarterly profit and raised its 2011 outlook to "solidly profitable" [ID:nN02411585]. The U.S. automaker said the third-quarter results were helped by cost cuts, improved credit results and increased North American market share.
Ford executives are optimistic about next year, but acknowledged the near-term uncertainty.
"We're just not sure mainly about the strength of the recovery, just like everybody else," Ford Chief Executive Alan Mulally said on a conference call.
At the Reuters Auto Summit in Paris, Renault SA (RENA.PA) and Peugeot SA (PEUP.PA) said they see a strong end to 2009 as drivers flock to take advantage of government incentives to trade in old cars. However, they agreed that questions remain about 2010 with sales slumping as much as 10 percent.
At the summit in Detroit, Toyota Motor Corp's (7203.T) U.S. brand chief, Bob Carter, said a gradual recovery for the industry was taking shape, with total U.S. industry sales seen rising 4.8 percent or more next year to more than 11 million.
"We believe the bottom of the cycle occurred in the first two weeks of April," he said. "In the month of September and closing out October, we see ourselves back on the slow and steady improvement track."
Jim O'Donnell, president of BMW North America, also said U.S. industry sales would be close to 11 million units next year, but that was down from the 11.5 million he had expected as recently as September.
"It will be a slower recovery than I had originally anticipated," he said. "There is still a lot of consumer debt out there. That is keeping the average consumer from going out and making big purchases.
Group 1 Automotive's CEO (GPI.N), Earl Hesterberg, said he saw no signs of a rebound in consumer confidence and held "no significant optimism" for U.S. vehicle sales in November and December. He called 11 million units a reasonable U.S. sales forecast for 2010.
Meanwhile, Jerry York, a former General Motors Co GM.UL director, said he saw U.S. auto sales remaining flat next year. "I just can't fathom anything that's going to cause a material increase in auto sales in this country in 2010," he said.
Still, more optimism is circulating in the auto world.
Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG.N) said on Friday it had received offers from foreign automakers to sell their brands in the United States through Penske dealerships.
Automakers in the U.S. market are set to report October sales on Tuesday. Analysts expect the strongest results of 2009 excluding July and August, when sales received a boost from the U.S. government's "cash for clunkers" trade-in incentives.
However, doubts still remain about the speed and strength of any recovery.
Not all the news has been good for Ford. The United Auto Workers union overwhelmingly rejected proposed concessions Ford has said it needs to stay competitive.
Ford is the only large U.S. automaker to avoid bankruptcy in 2009, but it posted losses totaling $30 billion from 2006 through 2008 and remains saddled with a much heavier debt load than GM or Chrysler.
The UAW also is trying to convince Italian automaker Fiat SpA (FIA.MI) to reverse plans to close Chrysler plants scrapped in the U.S. automaker's bankruptcy.
Fiat, which assumed control of Chrysler when it emerged from bankruptcy in June, is due to announce a new five-year strategic plan for the ailing Chrysler on Wednesday.
(Reporting by auto reporters in Detroit and Paris, writing by Ben Klayman in Chicago, editing by Matthew Lewis)
