Toyota sees '09 industry sales 10.3-10.4 million

DETROIT (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) expects industry-wide U.S. light vehicle sales to range between 10.3 million and 10.4 million units on an annualized basis in 2009, and top 11 million in 2010, the automaker's U.S. brand chief told Reuters on Monday.

Speaking at the annual Reuters Autos Summit, Bob Carter also said he expected October U.S. industry-wide vehicle sales to come in between 10.3 million and 10.5 million units on an annualized basis. Toyota's overall sales for the month are pacing down slightly from a year earlier, with its retail sales down "a few single-digit percentages," he said.

Automakers are expected to release October U.S. sales figures on Tuesday, when analysts expect to see the strongest results of the year with the exception of July and August, when vehicle sales received a short-lived boost from the U.S. government's "cash for clunkers" trade-in incentives.

Auto sales, a key measure of consumer demand, have been hurt in the past year as customers tightened purse strings amid a weak economy. The economic meltdown came on the heels of already-weakening vehicle demand amid record-high gasoline prices last year.

"We are seeing some mild but steady progressions," Carter said of demand for U.S. vehicles. "In the month of August, with the government stimulus and 'cash for clunkers,' that gave the industry a shot in the arm." This, he added, created inventory shortages across the industry.

"In the month of September and closing out October, we see ourselves back on the slow and steady improvement track."

INVENTORY GROWING

Carter said Toyota has slowly built its inventory, from 73,000 units in August -- its lowest levels since 1992 -- to about 150,000 units at present. He said the automaker would move close to 200,000 units by year-end and would continue building its stock next year.

He said an optimal dealer inventory range would be 220,000 to 225,000 units as the automaker heads into the winter season.

JPMorgan analyst Himanshu Patel expects General Motors Co GM.UL to report a 2 percent rise in October sales, Ford Motor Co (F.N) to post a 5 percent decline, and Chrysler Group to post a 28 percent fall.

Edmunds.com also sees a 2 percent increase in GM sales but expects Ford and Chrysler to post sales declines of 7 percent and 34 percent, respectively.

The forecasting firm expects Toyota to report a 10 percent decline in sales, while it projects flat sales for Honda Motor Co (7267.T) and a 9 percent increase for Nissan Motor Co

(7201.T).

Hyundai Motor Co (005380.KS), the only major automaker to post higher sales in the slumping U.S. market, is expected to post 33 percent growth, according to Edmunds.com.

(Reporting by Jui Chakravorty, additional reporting by Bernie Woodall and Kevin Krolicki, editing by Matthew Lewis)