SCENARIOS: Options for re-elected Afghan leader Karzai

KABUL (Reuters) - Newly re-elected Afghan President Hamid Karzai said on Tuesday he wanted an inclusive government and vowed to tackle corruption after stern warnings from Western supporters following a flawed election process marred by fraud.

Here are some scenarios about how Karzai could approach his next five-year term and what shape his new government might take:

LITTLE CHANGE

The international community is applying heavy pressure on Karzai to tackle corruption, as it has been doing for the past year, and to work with opponents, in particular Abdullah Abdullah, his main rival who withdrew from the presidential race on Sunday.

Karzai made no mention if he wanted to include Abdullah in his next government during a televised address on Tuesday.

He said corruption could not be addressed just by removing ministers and governors -- a sign that he might not be about to start sacking officials from his previous administration.

Seen by many in the West as a weak leader in charge of a government riddled with corruption, Karzai has been told by U.S. President Barack Obama, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and others that he must do more.

Some analysts said he did not go far enough in his speech and remained unspecific about the future, an indication that he will try to maintain the status quo.

"We are probably headed the next five years the way we've experienced the last five years," Kabul-based political analyst Haround Mir said. This scenario would not please Washington, which must decide if it has an effective partner as Obama considers whether to send up to 40,000 more troops to combat a resurgent Taliban.

Obama congratulated Karzai but said the man who has ruled Afghanistan since 2001 needed to "write a new chapter."

A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT

For now, this seems the most likely scenario because Karzai said his government would be for all Afghans and all those who want to work with him. He said it did not matter if they opposed him in the election, but he stopped short of naming Abdullah.

Formally establishing a national unity government would allow Karzai to keep his influence, protect his reputation as a unifier and go some way to appeasing Washington and his other supporters in the West.

DRAMATIC CHANGES

Including Abdullah in a key leadership role, giving Abdullah's supporters ministerial positions and reducing his own authority would represent dramatic changes for Karzai.

Strengthening the anti-corruption commission, established last year, and making robust reforms to how international donor aid is handled and how official appointments are made would also help satisfy those who have demanded more from him.

But that would risk weakening his own position -- not something he is likely to do, even though his reputation has been badly tarnished by fraud findings in the election first round.

He also does not want to be seen by Afghans as bowing to Western pressure, something the Taliban could also be expected to exploit politically.

A POWER-SHARING DEAL WITH ABDULLAH ABDULLAH:

Karzai's camp have so far dismissed the idea that the president would share his leadership with Abdullah, but with renewed pressure from the international community to work toward an inclusive government, he may have to soften that line.

Abdullah himself has remained coy about whether he wants to share the leadership role with Karzai, but in the past he has mooted a parliamentary system for Afghanistan with a prime minister and a symbolic president.

That would require rewriting the Afghan constitution.

Karzai is also regarded by diplomats as a man who would resist bowing to Western pressure, and as someone who guards his leadership fiercely.

MAJOR AGENDA AREAS

Apart from corruption, Obama, Brown and Ban have already addressed other areas they say need immediate attention.

These include accelerating training to strengthen the Afghan military and police force so that the United States, Britain and others can reduce their forces in Afghanistan over time.

Brown and Obama have also said Karzai must work harder on the economic development front and on improving governance standards.

(Editing by Paul Tait and Alex Richardson)