Pakistani-U.S. ties better but tension looms

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton patched up ties with uneasy ally Pakistan on her recent visit but strains are likely to intensify over Afghan insurgent factions fighting out of Pakistani border enclaves.

Clinton praised Pakistan's offensive against Pakistani Taliban fighters in the South Waziristan region near the Afghan border, and unlike previous U.S. visitors, she did not, at least publicly, demand that Pakistan do more on militancy.

Clinton did make one pointed remark about finding it hard to believe no one in Pakistan's government knew where al Qaeda leaders were, but considering Islamabad's spotty approach toward tackling militancy she could have been far harsher, as other U.S. officials have been in the past.

While the Pakistani army makes progress against the militants attacking the Pakistani state, Afghan Taliban factions allied with Pakistani militants and based in lawless ethnic Pashtun border lands are being left alone.

As the United States struggles against an intensifying Afghan insurgency, its frustration is bound to grow. But its anger will be kept in check by its need for Pakistani help to extricate itself from Afghanistan, Pakistani analysts said.

"The presence of these groups in Pakistan and the fact that you have a very bloody war going on in Afghanistan will quite obviously and justifiably result in American attention being focused on sanctuaries on this side of the border," said Samina Ahmed, Pakistani director of the International Crisis Group.

The commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, said in an assessment leaked in September that Afghan insurgent leaders were based in Pakistan and Afghan insurgents were clearly getting support from Pakistani "safe havens."

He identified three insurgent factions: an Afghan Taliban leadership council known as the Quetta shura, a network run by veteran Afghan militant Jalaluddin Haqqani and fighters loyal to former Afghan prime minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

Pakistan denies supporting any Afghan Taliban factions but it has long courted Islamists for use as tools in achieving foreign policy objectives, and long backed the Taliban as Afghan allies.

The United States and Afghanistan say some Pakistani elements still see the Afghan Taliban as the safest bet for pursuing the long-term goals of a friendly Kabul government and minimizing old rival India's influence in Afghanistan.

"There is a trust deficit. Both sides don't see their adversaries in the same light," said Mushahid Hussain, a former chairman of the Pakistani Senate's Foreign Relations Committee.

"THE TALIBAN CAN BE ACCOMMODATED"

From Pakistan's point of view, the United States and its allies look increasingly desperate to get out of Afghanistan and increasingly willing to accommodate the Afghan Taliban if their link with al Qaeda could be severed.

"One thing is very clear -- they aren't there for the long haul," Hussain said. "Sooner or later, the U.S. will be talking to those it's fighting now, or sections of those they are fighting, as they did in Iraq."

While U.S. anger over militant sanctuaries will cloud relations, the United States still needs Pakistani help.

"Now there is some element of concession to Pakistan as long as Pakistan continues pressure on al Qaeda," said Najam Sethi, editor of the Daily Times newspaper.

"The Americans are now coming around to the position that if al Qaeda is eliminated and the Taliban can say 'We don't want al Qaeda' then the Taliban can be accommodated."

But the United States needs to demonstrate long-term commitment and a readiness to send more troops if the Taliban are to be persuaded to talk, he said.

"The Americans have to show longevity in staying, then these talks will be held," said Sethi.

In the meantime, U.S. pressure will build for action against the Haqqani network, believed to have orchestrated almost all recent attacks in Kabul from its lair in Pakistan's North Waziristan.

"The real source of tension lies in the presence of the Haqqani network which is far more dangerous, far more closely linked to al Qaeda, than the Afghan Taliban," said Ahmed.

"Clearly, the Quetta shura will remain an irritant but if we're going to see the U.S. trying to reach out to the Taliban, perhaps this will not be the main focus of U.S. efforts in Pakistan."

Pakistan had its long-term interests in Afghanistan but it is also now determined to tackle Islamist violence, Hussain said.

"Factors have changed in Pakistan. There's a broad consensus today on the issue of terrorism and extremism," he said.

"Whatever Obama does on Afghanistan, the Pakistani state has embarked on a certain process. We are reinventing ourselves. It's a different Pakistan which is emerging slowly but surely."

(Additional reporting by Zeeshan Haider; Editing by Bryson Hull and Jerry Norton)