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SNAP ANALYSIS: Japan, U.S. ties still troubled after summit

TOKYO
Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:43am EST

TOKYO (Reuters) - President Barack Obama stressed the importance of the U.S-Japan alliance in a speech on Saturday, but his 24-hour stay in Tokyo has left unresolved a feud over a U.S. military base and deeper questions about the future.

Barack Obama  |  China

Here are some key issues facing the five decade-old alliance following an agreement by Obama and Japan's new prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama, to spend the next year reviewing ties as both countries adapt to China's rising regional and global clout.

* Obama and Hatoyama agreed to resolve as soon as possible a dispute over the U.S. Marines Futenma airbase on Japan's southern island of Okinawa, but remain at odds over the content.

Obama made clear he wants Tokyo to implement a 2006 deal under which Futenma would be closed and replaced with a facility on a less crowded part of the island.

But Hatoyama said that comments during the August campaign that vaulted his party to power had raised hopes of Okinawa residents, who want the base off the island. High-level talks could begin as early as next week, reviving the headache the leaders played down at their summit.

* Hatoyama faces a de facto deadline of year-end for what will be a tough decision. The victory of an anti-base candidate in a local mayoral election in Okinawa in January would make it even harder to agree to implement the 2006 deal, even with some changes. Bowing to U.S. demands could cause a rift with two small coalition partners, upset some in his own party and alienate some voters ahead of an important upper house election in mid-2010.

* Hatoyama and Obama agreed to begin a review of the alliance with a view to completing it next November, when the president will be back in Japan for an Asia-Pacific summit. Many experts say the alliance needs to be reframed to adjust to changing regional and global dynamics centered on China's rise. But it remains to be seen whether the two sides will approach the process the same way. Hatoyama wants to broaden the alliance to include non-traditional security areas, but what future role he sees for the 47,000 U.S. troops based in Japan is not clear.

* Hatoyama's Democratic Party, which ousted its long-dominant conservative rival with a massive August election win, has pledged to steer a diplomatic course less dependent on long-time ally Washington. But Tokyo, committed to shunning nuclear arms, is dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, a paradox that analysts say makes the relationship inherently unequal.

* Hatoyama has stressed that the U.S.-Japan alliance remains the core of Tokyo's diplomacy, but he also is promoting an East Asian Community that would begin by deepening trade and economic ties but eventually lead to an EU-type bloc with a common currency. He says the idea is not meant to exclude the United States, but some in Washington worry that Tokyo wants to distance itself from its long-time ally.

(Editing by Alex Richardson)



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