Republicans see Arkansas senate seat as big target

Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) (C) speaks about the 2007 budget in a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, February 9, 2006.

LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas (Reuters) - If Republicans are to turn anger at President Barack Obama's policies into big gains in the 2010 elections, there is no better place to start than by defeating Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas.

Alone among moderate Democrats who voted on Saturday to open a Senate debate on healthcare reform, Lincoln faces re-election next year and sagging poll numbers have Republicans scenting a possible upset.

The fact that she provided the vital 60th vote to start the debate increases her vulnerability, say state Republicans.

"The people of Arkansas will surely see through Blanche Lincoln's little game and they may not be happy about it," said an editorial in the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, the state's leading newspaper.

"Having sown the wind (with her vote), the senator could reap the whirlwind when she comes up for re-election next year," said the paper.

But Lincoln retains formidable advantages as an incumbent running for a third six-year term, including a deep war chest and close ties to the state's vital agricultural industry.

Beyond that, Arkansas has a tradition of electing leaders based on personality rather than party and that could work in Lincoln's favor if she is seen as an effective advocate for the state's 3 million residents, according to analysts.

Lincoln says reform of the $2.5 trillion U.S. healthcare sector will help Arkansas, where nearly 500,000 people lack health insurance, but she opposes a government-run insurance program and says the bill needs better cost control.

She also laughs off criticism of her stance on the issue.

"The political sides have been hitting me from both sides, whether it's the left or whether it's the right. And they are going to continue to do that even after healthcare is long gone," she told reporters in Little Rock.

Healthcare reform will solidify opposition to Lincoln even without the public option because residents fear they will pay the price for a massive new government program, said Gilbert Baker, who leads a wide field of Republican challengers.

But a bigger danger for Lincoln than Republican ire could be demoralization within her own ranks, said Blake Rutherford, a liberal blogger and talk show host in Little Rock.

Job losses, the national debt and the war in Afghanistan have combined to create a "subdued" mood among state Democrats even though many of those problems could be blamed on former President George W. Bush, Rutherford said.

"The biggest challenge is that 2010 doesn't excite Democrats. They just don't feel the enthusiasm of 2008 and they don't feel the need to rally behind Blanche Lincoln," he said.

Democrats have a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

NATURAL STATE

Arkansas' motto is The Natural State and agriculture, livestock breeding, poultry and forestry give the state its biggest industry and most powerful lobby.

This could offer Lincoln a trump card because in September she was named chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, the first woman to head the committee.

That credential was on display when she held a committee hearing in Little Rock on Monday.

Farm leaders from across the political divide praised her leadership and urged more government action to help farmers struggling after one of the roughest years in recent memory.

"Arkansas has been well served by her advocacy in the Senate. For farmers (her position on the committee) ... is an extreme advantage for the state," said Ben Noble, executive director of the Arkansas Rice Federation.

Republicans played down the importance of her position on the committee to Arkansas, arguing that any senator would defend the state's agricultural interests vigorously.

Lincoln's farming ties will be tested if Stanley Reed, a former president of the Arkansas Farmers Bureau, joins the field of Republican challengers, analysts said.

RETAIL POLITICS

Arkansas sits in the Bible Belt, the most pro-Republican part of the country, but it remains an outlier, resisting a trend in the Southeast toward greater conservatism.

It has two Democratic senators, a popular Democratic governor and a slew of other Democratic state officials but, after supporting native son Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, it has voted Republican in presidential elections since 2000.

Analysts said Lincoln's chances of winning re-election could be determined by the degree to which attitudes toward Obama's policies undermine the traditional strength of state Democrats.

The social conservatism of many Democrats in the state helps explain their political strength. Another factor is the ability of individual politicians to project themselves beyond party affiliation, analysts said.

The state's size also promotes retail politics in which politicians deal directly with voters at small gatherings.

"Arkansas has always been fiercely independent and it is a small state where people know their politicians by their first names," said Skip Rutherford, dean of the University of Arkansas Clinton School. "Those that people know personally, they tend to put friendship and respect over partisan views."

(Editing by Mohammad Zargham)