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Economists trim 2011 U.S. growth forecast

WASHINGTON | Wed Mar 10, 2010 12:40am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. economists raised their forecast for economic growth in 2010 in March, the third straight monthly rise, while trimming their growth forecast for 2011, according to a survey released on Wednesday.

Economists surveyed earlier this month in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter said the economy is expected to grow by 3.0 percent in 2011, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than estimates made a month ago.

But economists raised their 2010 growth forecast for the third consecutive month to 3.1 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from February.

Still, the economists predicted the recovery would be mild given the depth of the recession.

The consensus also expects inventories to continue adding to GDP over the next several quarters but see the size of those contributions become increasingly smaller.

"By Q1 2011, the contribution to GDP from business inventories is expected to become trivial," the survey said.

The panelists said they also expect "a slower and less powerful than is typical improvement in labor market conditions that will cap gains in disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditures."

The panelists expressed concern that severe winter weather crimped economic activity in February and that upcoming monthly data on production, retail sales, housing starts and home sales could fall short of earlier consensus expectations.

However, they also pointed out any weather-induced softness should be recovered in the March data.

(Reporting by Nancy Waitz, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Comments

Mar 10, 2010 6:29am EST

Who really trusts these guys now anyway? None of them saw the current situation coming. They are all fools. Send your kids to school to study a real science like physics and biology. Do not let your kids become an economist. It is only fool talk.

blahhhhhh Report As Abusive
 
 
Mar 10, 2010 7:23am EST

The sky is falling, the sky is falling! Who the heck knows. Since this is going to be the biggest jobless recovery ever, GDP results don’t mean much to the average worker. The temp job is the new full time job

STORY-BURN Report As Abusive
 
 
Mar 10, 2010 9:14am EST

Why isn’t anyone talking about the number of jobs that this country still continues to outsource to other countries. We’re never going to get back on our feet without jobs.

Deny Report As Abusive
 
 
Mar 10, 2010 3:22pm EST

Today’s Headline on USA Today: Unemployment rises in 30 states in January; see chart

What? EVERY report coming out of the Obama administration states that things are, a) Better, b) Bottomed-Out, or c) Getting Better.

I can’t wait to see how the Obama lovers are going to whitewash this one. You can’t simply blame Bush forever.

GLK Report As Abusive
 
 
Mar 11, 2010 6:22am EST

The sky is not falling, we are already standing on it.

But lets sit back and watch the Dow Jones, S&P keep on sky rocketing as though there is nothing wrong anywhere. And they crash the market again and take everybody with them again.

Kina Report As Abusive
 
 
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