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Mexico drug boss death could spark power struggle
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Ignacio ''Nacho'' Coronel seen in this projected image by the Mexican Army during a news conference Mexico City, July 29, 2010.
Credit: Reuters/Eliana Aponte
MONTERREY, Mexico |
MONTERREY, Mexico (Reuters) - Mexico's killing of a top drug trafficker is a coup for President Felipe Calderon, but it may result in a spike in violence and is unlikely to lead authorities to the country's most wanted drug boss.
"Given the increase in violence from other drug bosses captured or executed, it's probable that the strike on Ignacio Coronel will provoke shocks, above all throughout Guadalajara," leading newspaper La Jornada wrote in an editorial on Friday.
Mexican authorities touted the raid in the western city of Guadalajara on Thursday, when over 100 soldiers burst in on Ignacio "Nacho" Coronel and shot him as he tried to escape, as a major victory in Calderon's war against cartels.
Coronel was a top lieutenant to Joaquin "Shorty" Guzman, the most wanted man in Mexico and the leader of the powerful Sinaloa cartel, which controls major drug smuggling routes along the Pacific into the United States.
The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration praised Calderon, saying Coronel's death was "a crippling blow to that organization's ability to function."
Yet the killing raises questions about whether a vacuum near the top of the highly organized Sinaloa cartel could spark a fresh bout of violence in Guadalajara and Jalisco state, until now a relatively quiet spot in the drug war.
More than 26,000 people have died in drug violence since Calderon launched his drug war in late 2006. The bloodshed has become a growing worry for the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama, global investors and foreign tourists.
In the past, violence has followed arrests or deaths of drug leaders, like in 2004, when heavy fighting broke out as Guzman struggled to take over smuggling routes made vulnerable by the arrest of Osiel Cardenas, head of the Gulf Cartel.
Bloodshed has jumped since the start of this year in Mexico's Acapulco beach resort as part of a leadership battle following the killing of drug lord Arturo Beltran Leyva by Mexican special forces in December.
"The glow ... is likely to be short-lived. As the Sinaloa Federation scrambles to regroup, other organizations will undoubtedly seek to challenge its dominance in the region, such as the Beltran Leyva organization and Los Zetas," U.S. security consultancy Stratfor said in a report on Friday.
"This could well lead to another spike in violence."
THE BIG FISH
The arrest is unlikely to bring Mexican authorities straight to Guzman, the ultimate prize.
DEA and drug trade experts played down the chances of immediately catching Guzman, who has launched a brutal campaign to dominate the multibillion dollar drug trade.
At just 5 feet tall, Guzman is Mexico's most famous kingpin in decades. Forbes Magazine put him on their list of the world's richest people in 2009, with an estimated fortune of $1 billion. He may actually be much richer.
"These cartels are very compartmentalized, Coronel's seniority doesn't mean he was answering to Guzman or any one person, he was calling the shots on a day-to-day basis," said DEA Special Agent Michael Sanders in Washington.
One local expert on the Sinaloa cartel said Coronel had distanced himself from Guzman over the past year amid disagreements over Guzman's territorial ambitions.
"The alliance was still intact but the cartel is not going to collapse with the killing of one of its generals," said the expert, who asked not to be identified.
(Additional reporting by Michael O'Boyle in Mexico City; editing by Missy Ryan and Anthony Boadle)
Why the security specialists didn’t speak about the arms trafficking to Mexico from the US border states? or maybe about the biggest money laundering that the drug gangs do in US? at least about consumption rates…
The cartels and their hitmen are often former elite military members and experts at unconventional warfare. You cannot readily combat unconventional tactics with line and security forces and as history shows, those trained properly to combat the threat are susceptible to corruption.
Call in the bounty hunters. They adhere to no code of conduct or rules of engagement and answer only to money.
The cartels will never be weakened as long as the US market for drugs is strong. The solution to this problem begins in the US. The prohibition of illegal substances such as cocaine and marijuana has been a monumental failure. Decriminalization of these substances will provide tax revenue for the state, free up police time for more pressing activity, and take the huge profits out of the trade so as to deprive the cartels of their obscene gains. This prohibition has had the opposite effect from what was intended. The huge profits actually attract criminal activity the law is intended to stop. Lets use the money saved to address the social problems that contribute to drug use. Is this approach too rational?
sshurwitz, You more or less have it about right. Look at what the prohibition of alcohol did? It was a primary driver of the violence and organized crime we saw in the 20s and 30s. The law is repealed and suddenly there’s no more shootouts among the Feds and moonshiners.
Wonder what would happen if we tried this today?
i can’t believe 26,000 have died right next to us and all these d bags can spew is a bunch of racist conservative right wing garbage.
that’s about the # of soldiers we lost in vietnam. for the love of god, these are people just like us. how are they any different than our neighbors. does a line on a map make their lives worth so much less? is it the color of their skin or the language they speak that makes them less human? are u people that full of racist hatred? can this society Ever grow the f up?
Legalization of these drugs will finnally stop the Billions of US Tax payer money’s spent on this fight. If we legalize it and tax the use of it we will be able to address much of our infrastucture issue’s and the huge deficeit ran up uder the Repulican controlled Congress and President Bush’s Administration.
“but someone else is going to take his place”
Why does the author point out the obviously irrational nature of prohibition and then go on to ignore the subject entirely–instead telling the people to back the government’s idiotic moves?!
This violent war is doing much more than killing Mexican citizens–it is undermining the integrity of the U.S. judicial system and empowering criminals everywhere. Thanks to our failed drug war, we now have 25% of the world’s prisoners–a staggering number, when you consider that we only have 5% of the world’s total population..
Please support the brave men and women from Law Enforcement Against Prohibition by visiting their website at www.LEAP.cc. There is only one way to win this war and LEAP is the incredible organization which is helping to make it happen. But they need as much exposure and help as they can get..
mockiavillian, I agree with you completely. However, I believe, the majority of the people in this country will remain narrow-sighted ’til the end of their shallow lives.
They simply need to make the punishment for being a drug lord death in mexico. Not jail. Enough deaths and people will be afraid to take their place, much like their drug force and anti-drug officials that get knocked off all the time. At the same time legalize drugs in the US. People are already doing drugs now, so whats the point of a ban? nobody cares anyways.Yes get tax money, to do better things and ensure we are getting clean dope at the same time. Maybe even keep a drug “purchase record” on file for the current month, for employers when doing background checks to discourage their use at the same time, and to let parents smack their children when they do things they don’t need to be doing.
