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Climate change won't hit NZ farm production: studies
WELLINGTON (Reuters) - New Zealand's agricultural sector will escape unscathed from rising temperatures as a result of climate change, despite an increase in the number of droughts and storms, two reports said on Tuesday.
Agricultural production accounts for about a third of New Zealand's NZ$38 billion ($30 billion) annual export earnings, with the country being the world's largest dairy exporter and one of the largest sheep and beef exporters.
Average temperatures are expected to rise 2 degrees by 2090, with hotter and drier weather as well as rainstorms and higher winds, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research said.
A separate report by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry said climate change would result in little overall difference to agricultural production over this century.
However the MAF report said extremes in climate conditions, such as droughts would have a greater one-off impact on agricultural production. The report compared projected production for the 2080's with the average of the 1972-2002 period.
NIWA said that, as well as average temperatures rising by an average of 2 degrees celsius, the number of "hot days" above 25 degrees could as much as treble in some places.
More extreme rainfall events are likely, with a 1-in-100 year event likely to become a 1-in-50 year event by 2090. The northern and eastern parts of New Zealand are likely to be up to 7 percent drier, while southern and western areas will be up to 12 percent wetter.
New Zealand currently generates about two-thirds of its power through hydro electricity, and NIWA predicted the areas where the bulk of the country's hydro schemes are located would be up to 12 percent wetter.
MAF said in northern and eastern parts of the country agricultural production would probably decrease but this would be offset by increased production in southern and western areas.
Overall dairy production is projected to be 100-101 percent of average, while sheep and beef production would likely be 93-96 percent of average.
But a drought year could see agricultural production fall to 50-57 percent of current levels, compared with average drought-year production of about 64-67 percent over the past 30 years, the report said.
(NZ$1=$1.27)
(Reporting by Adrian Bathgate; Editing by Alex Richardson)
