October 3, 2012 / 8:15 PM / 5 years ago

TEXT-Fitch upgrades CF Industries to 'BBB'

6 Min Read

Oct 3 - Fitch Ratings has upgraded the Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) of CF
Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF Holdings) and CF Industries Inc. (CF) to
'BBB' from 'BBB-'. Coincident, the two unsecured notes issues and the senior
unsecured revolver of CF have been upgraded to 'BBB' from 'BBB-'. The Rating
Outlook is Stable.

The ratings' upgrades are based on a continuing bullish business environment
which has led CF to outperform Fitch's expectations. Farm economics are strong
with the demand for grains being pulled by population growth and
corn-for-ethanol to meet higher renewable fuel requirements. A slump in corn
production caused by this past season's drought and high temperatures have
combined with speculation to push corn prices up to $7.50/bushel from $5/bushel
last June. In concert the demand for and price of nitrogen fertilizers has
risen, ammonia (Tampa prices) rising from $625/metric tonne in June to
$715/metric tonne currently. CF's aggregate nitrogen tonnage sold in the first
half of 2012 was 1.8% ahead of last year with ammonia plants running at 97% of
capacity through the second quarter. Nitrogen based fertilizers accounted for
85% of CF's net sales in the first half of this year and 87% of sales by volume;
phosphate fertilizers make up the balance.

Complementing the demand for CF's nitrogen-based products has been a declining
North American cost curve due to increased shale gas production. Natural gas
prices have fallen year over year, with CF paying $3.31/MMBtu (including hedges)
in the past six months versus $4.32/MMBtu a year ago. Lower manufacturing costs
and higher nitrogen fertilizer prices have pushed gross margins to almost 60%
from 50% a year ago.

Also working in CF's favor is the 60% or so of nitrogen-based fertilizers
imported into this country by necessity. Exporters to this country (some of whom
pay double the natural gas prices paid in the U.S.) have an interest in keeping
nitrogen fertilizer prices high which assures the sale of CF's lower cost
products.

The combination of these circumstances has yielded record sales, profits and
EBITDA in the first half of the year. Year over year sales for the first six
months were almost 10% ahead of 2011. Operating earnings were 21.5% ahead of
2011 and 18% ahead of Fitch's expectations. EBITDA was 19% ahead of last year at
$1.9 billion and 16% ahead of Fitch's expectations. Free cash flow which
includes an increase of $38.0 million in dividends was $838.6 million versus
$802.3 million in the first six months of 2011. Leverage declined to 0.46 times
(x) LTM EBITDA from 0.51x at the end of fiscal 2011.

CF has begun to spend part of its strong cash flow. In the second quarter CF
completed its $1.5 billion share repurchase program which its Board approved in
August 2011 with the purchase of 3.1 million shares for $500.0 million. The
program has been refreshed, up to $3.0 billion through December 2016. This past
August CF announced that it would acquire the 34% of the shares of Canadian
Fertilizers Limited (CFL) that it did not own from Viterra, Inc. for C$915
million, subject to Glencore International plc's acquisition of Viterra. CFL
owns the Medicine Hat fertilizer complex in Alberta which CF has operated for 35
years. Finally, CF is looking at expanding its gross ammonia production by
approximately 1.0 million tons and UAN and/or urea production by approximately
3.5 million tons through brownfield expansions which could tally upwards of $2.0
billion in capital expenditures over time.

It is unlikely that CF will spend beyond current cash flow generation and we
expect CF to continue to maintain conservative liquidity guidelines. Cash on
hand of $1.4 billion plus unused revolver capacity totaled almost $1.9 billion
at the end of the second quarter. CF is conservatively managed, and the
company's capital expenditure guidance for the current year is $400 million. FCF
for the current year will likely exceed Fitch's previous expectations of $1.8
billion.

In May CF replaced its $500 million senior secured revolving credit facility
with an unsecured credit facility of the same size maturing in May 2017.
Financial tests include a minimum quarterly interest coverage ratio of 2.75:1.00
and a maximum debt/EBITDA of 3.75:1.00. CF was well within compliance at the end
of the second quarter. The company has outstanding two unsecured bond issues of
$800 million each maturing in 2018 and 2020 and LTM EBITDA of $3.5 billion,
calculated by Fitch as of the end of the second quarter.

WHAT COULD TRIGGER A RATING ACTION

Positive: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a
positive rating action include:
--Free cash flow (after dividends) grows more positive as agricultural economics
continue on their positive trend, and
--CF maintains a liquidity profile in the vicinity of the $1.9 billion available
at the end of the second quarter.

Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a
negative rating action include:
--FCF turns negative which in combination with stock repurchases and
acquisitions significantly erodes liquidity.
--The demand for nitrogen based fertilizers suffers a very sharp and sustained
reduction.
--Natural gas prices revert to 2010 levels in concert with a reduction in
fertilizer prices.

Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. The ratings above
were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been
compensated for the provision of the ratings.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
--'Corporate Rating Methodology' (Aug. 12, 2011).

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
Corporate Rating Methodology

0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below