U.S. hiring seen weaker in fourth quarter: Manpower
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A measure of U.S. employment expectations fell to its lowest level since 2003, amid signs the U.S. job market slowdown is spreading to economies around the globe, according to a quarterly survey by Manpower Inc (MAN.N) released on Tuesday.
The staffing services company said its seasonally adjusted net employment outlook fell for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching a level of 9, down from 12 last quarter and 18 a year ago. The index measures the difference between employers who plan to add jobs and those who expect to cut them.
"We are clearly in a softening period in the labor market that may be at recessionary levels," Manpower Chief Executive Jeff Joerres said.
If the index were to fall to a level of 4 or 5, he added, it would be more similar to past recessions.
Of the 10 U.S. sectors tracked by Manpower, only mining has an improved outlook for job seekers compared with the previous quarter. Prospects have weakened in six other sectors and are stable in three.
POOR RETAIL OUTLOOK
Employers in the U.S. wholesale and retail trade sector report their weakest hiring intentions since the third quarter of 1991, and the lowest fourth-quarter reading ever.
U.S. retailers have faced hard times before. But now the many negative factors -- weak housing markets and construction activity, high energy costs and a slowing world economy -- are coming together in the fourth quarter, suggesting a bleak outlook for the key U.S. holiday shopping season. Employers in the western United States are especially cautious.
"It's peaking more in the fourth quarter than it has traditionally," Joerres said. This holiday season, he added, "re-gifting may be more prevalent than ever before."
Manpower's outlook comes a few days after the government reported the eighth consecutive monthly drop in U.S. non-farm payrolls and said unemployment spiked to 6.1 percent, the highest since 2003.
Manpower's U.S. survey, based on interviews with about 14,000 employers, dates back to 1962. The Milwaukee-based company does business in 80 countries and generates the bulk of its sales and profits outside the United States.
EUROPE 'LOOKING SOFTER'
Meanwhile, the U.S. labor downturn is affecting countries with close links to the United States, like Japan, at a time when many large economies are already struggling with high energy costs.
"The lack of performance in the U.S. is now starting to take its toll," Joerres said, adding that continental Europe was also "looking softer."
Overall, Manpower found weaker hiring intentions in 25 countries and territories, compared with the third quarter, with five reporting improved prospects. Prospects were also weaker when compared with a year ago in most countries and territories.
Hiring expectations were generally down in Europe and the Middle East, Manpower said, and the net employment outlook dipped below zero in Ireland, Italy and Spain. By contrast, prospects improved in Belgium, Austria and the Netherlands.
The index is generally less volatile in European countries because restrictive labor laws make it relatively hard for employers to cut workers, Manpower's CEO said.
Countries and territories in the Asia-Pacific region all reported weaker hiring intentions, with New Zealand's outlook at its lowest level in the survey's four-year history in that country. Prospects are dimmer in India and Taiwan, but the declines there were more modest and overall hiring activity remains at high levels, according to Manpower.
The data suggested a global labor recovery, once it comes, may be slow and gradual, just as the downturn has been.
"We're easing our way into this, which might mean a soft landing, but it typically also does not have a pop on the other side," Joerres said.
(Editing by Gary Hill)
