Tropical depression may form in Caribbean: NHC

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A tropical depression could form in the western Caribbean Sea over the next 48 hours but probably won't threaten the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico as it moves toward the Atlantic Ocean, the U.S. National Hurricane Center and most weather models forecast Monday.

The NHC expected environmental conditions in the western Caribbean to improve, giving the area of low pressure more than a 50 percent chance of developing over the next 12 to 24 hours.

The system was centered a couple hundred miles southwest of Puerto Rico and moving slowly west-northwest.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was scheduled to investigate the area this afternoon, if necessary.

Over the next several days, the NHC and most weather models projected the system would move north-northeast toward Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and other Leeward Islands before entering the Atlantic Ocean.

The Leeward Islands include the Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Saint Martin, Barbuda, Antigua, Montserrat and Guadeloupe.

A couple of the models showed the system remaining in the Caribbean Sea, buy none expected it to reach the Gulf of Mexico over the next five days.

If the system develops into a tropical storm, with winds of 39 to 73 miles per hour, it will be named Omar.

Energy traders watch for storms that could enter the Gulf of Mexico and threaten oil and gas production facilities.

Commodities traders likewise watch storms that could hit agriculture crops such as citrus and cotton in Florida and other states along the Gulf Coast to Texas.

NO WORRY ABOUT NANA

Tropical Storm Nana, meanwhile, remained disorganized about 1,015 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.

The NHC expected Nana to remain in the Atlantic and weaken to a tropical depression over then next 12 hours before dissipating within 48 hours.

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by John Picinich)