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TEXT-S&P cuts 1,078 rtgs on 86 U.S. Alt-A RMBS deals

Wed Nov 5, 2008 4:08pm EST
 (The following statement was released by the rating agency)
 Nov 5 -  Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today lowered its ratings on
1,078 classes from 86 U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)
transactions backed by U.S. Alternative-A (Alt-A) mortgage collateral issued in
2006 and 2007. Concurrently, we removed our ratings on 853 of these classes
from CreditWatch with negative implications.
 In addition, we affirmed 578 ratings among these and three other
transactions and removed 165 of the affirmed ratings from CreditWatch with
negative implications.
 We also placed five ratings from three transactions on CreditWatch with
negative implications. Four of the CreditWatch actions followed the Oct. 8,
2008, placement of the 'AAA' financial strength rating on Financial Security
Assurance Inc. (FSA) on CreditWatch negative; the remaining rating, which we
also lowered, was placed on CreditWatch in connection with the placement of the
'BBB-' financial strength rating on Syncora Guarantee Inc. on CreditWatch
negative.
 These financial institutions provide guarantee insurance policies for the
related certificates. The complete rating list is provided in "U.S. Alt-A RMBS
Classes From 2006 and 2007 Vintages Affected By Nov. 5, 2008, Rating Actions,"
published today on RatingsDirect, the real-time Web-based source for Standard &
Poor's credit ratings, research, and risk analysis, at www.ratingsdirect.com.
The list is also available on www.spviews.com, Standard & Poor's special Web
site for subprime and related mortgage matters.
 Most of these Alt-A transactions are collateralized by fixed-rate and
long-reset hybrid mortgages (with rates fixed for five or more years).
 In aggregate, the classes with lowered ratings had an original par amount
of approximately $34.1 billion, which has been paid down to approximately $28
billion.
 The certificates with affirmed ratings had an original balance of
approximately $37.7 billion, which has been paid down to approximately $28.5
billion. We affirmed our 'AAA' ratings on 529 classes, 108 of which are
interest-only classes.
 The downgraded classes included 649 classes formerly rated 'AAA'. Among
those are 566 interest-bearing and/or principal-bearing classes and 83
interest-only classes. The downgrades reflect our opinion that projected credit
support for the affected classes is insufficient to maintain the previous
ratings given our current projected losses, as stated in "S&P Revises Projected
Losses For '06-'07 U.S. Alt-A Fixed-Rate And Long-Reset Hybrid RMBS," published
Oct. 13, 2008, on RatingsDirect. We arrived at our estimated projected losses
for the Alt-A RMBS deals using the analysis outlined in "Criteria Assumptions:
Default And Loss Assumptions For U.S. Fixed Alt-A RMBS Transactions," published
Sept. 25, 2008, on RatingsDirect.
 In that document, we state that we have raised our loss severity
assumptions for 2006 and 2007 Alt-A fixed-rate and long-reset hybrid
transactions to 40% from 35% based on our belief that continued foreclosures,
distressed sales, an increase in carrying costs for properties in inventory,
costs associated with foreclosures, and further declines in home sales will
depress prices further and push loss severities higher than we had previously
assumed.
 Additionally, we have seen a rise in the level of delinquencies among the
Alt-A mortgage loans supporting these transactions. As of the September 2008
distribution period, severely delinquent loans (90-plus days, foreclosures, and
real estate owned {REO}) for the affected transactions averaged 13.08% of the
current pool balances, which represents an increase of 27.61% since June 2008.
This increase in delinquencies, along with the increase in our loss severity
assumptions, prompted us to place these ratings on CreditWatch negative.
 When determining rating actions on these deals going forward, we will be
using the loss projections that we outlined in "S&P Revises Projected Losses
For '06-'07 U.S. Alt-A Fixed-Rate And Long-Reset Hybrid RMBS," published on
Oct. 13, 2008, on RatingsDirect.
 As part of our analysis, we considered the characteristics of the
underlying mortgage collateral as well as our view of macroeconomic influences.
For example, our view of the risk profile of the underlying mortgage pools
influences our default projections, while our outlook for housing price
declines and our view of the health of the housing market influences our loss
severity assumptions.
 To assess the creditworthiness of each class, we reviewed the individual
delinquency and loss trends of each transaction for changes, if any, in what we
consider to be risk characteristics, as well as changes in servicing and the
classes' expected ability to withstand additional credit deterioration. In
order to maintain a rating higher than 'B', we considered whether a class could
absorb losses in excess of the base-case assumptions we assumed in our
analysis.
 For example, under our analysis, one class may have to withstand
approximately 115% of our base-case loss assumptions in order to maintain a
'BB' rating, while a different class may have to withstand approximately 125%
of our base-case loss assumptions to maintain a 'BBB' rating. We expect that a
class that has an affirmed 'AAA' rating is able to withstand approximately 150%
of our base-case loss assumptions under our analysis, subject to individual
caps and qualitative factors that we assumed on specific transactions.
 We also took into account the pay structure of each transaction and only
stressed each class with losses that we expected would occur while it remained
outstanding. Additionally, we only gave excess interest credit for the amount
of time the class would be outstanding. For example, if we projected a class to
pay down in 15 months, then we applied only 15 months of losses to that class.
Additionally, in such a case, we assumed 15 months of excess spread if the
class was structured with excess spread as credit enhancement.
 At the time of this release, we have resolved the CreditWatch placements on
4,670 ratings from 369 fixed-rate and long-reset hybrid Alt-A RMBS transactions
since they were placed on Watch on Oct. 13, 2008, while 866 classes from 87
transactions remain on CreditWatch.
 In the coming weeks, Standard & Poor's will continue to analyze the
remaining transactions affected by our revised loss expectations according to
our view of their order of performance, resolving the CreditWatch placements on
what we consider to be worse-performing transactions first.
 We expect to resolve the CreditWatch placements over the next several
weeks.


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