Hot sectors in a tepid recovery
The energy, finance, technology and healthcare industries are expected to be the hottest areas for dealmaking in 2010. Full Article | Full Coverage
TEXT-S&P cuts 1,078 rtgs on 86 U.S. Alt-A RMBS deals
(The following statement was released by the rating agency)
Nov 5 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today lowered its ratings on 1,078 classes from 86 U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions backed by U.S. Alternative-A (Alt-A) mortgage collateral issued in 2006 and 2007. Concurrently, we removed our ratings on 853 of these classes from CreditWatch with negative implications.
In addition, we affirmed 578 ratings among these and three other transactions and removed 165 of the affirmed ratings from CreditWatch with negative implications.
We also placed five ratings from three transactions on CreditWatch with negative implications. Four of the CreditWatch actions followed the Oct. 8, 2008, placement of the 'AAA' financial strength rating on Financial Security Assurance Inc. (FSA) on CreditWatch negative; the remaining rating, which we also lowered, was placed on CreditWatch in connection with the placement of the 'BBB-' financial strength rating on Syncora Guarantee Inc. on CreditWatch negative.
These financial institutions provide guarantee insurance policies for the related certificates. The complete rating list is provided in "U.S. Alt-A RMBS Classes From 2006 and 2007 Vintages Affected By Nov. 5, 2008, Rating Actions," published today on RatingsDirect, the real-time Web-based source for Standard & Poor's credit ratings, research, and risk analysis, at www.ratingsdirect.com. The list is also available on www.spviews.com, Standard & Poor's special Web site for subprime and related mortgage matters.
Most of these Alt-A transactions are collateralized by fixed-rate and long-reset hybrid mortgages (with rates fixed for five or more years).
In aggregate, the classes with lowered ratings had an original par amount of approximately $34.1 billion, which has been paid down to approximately $28 billion.
The certificates with affirmed ratings had an original balance of approximately $37.7 billion, which has been paid down to approximately $28.5 billion. We affirmed our 'AAA' ratings on 529 classes, 108 of which are interest-only classes.
The downgraded classes included 649 classes formerly rated 'AAA'. Among those are 566 interest-bearing and/or principal-bearing classes and 83 interest-only classes. The downgrades reflect our opinion that projected credit support for the affected classes is insufficient to maintain the previous ratings given our current projected losses, as stated in "S&P Revises Projected Losses For '06-'07 U.S. Alt-A Fixed-Rate And Long-Reset Hybrid RMBS," published Oct. 13, 2008, on RatingsDirect. We arrived at our estimated projected losses for the Alt-A RMBS deals using the analysis outlined in "Criteria Assumptions: Default And Loss Assumptions For U.S. Fixed Alt-A RMBS Transactions," published Sept. 25, 2008, on RatingsDirect.
In that document, we state that we have raised our loss severity assumptions for 2006 and 2007 Alt-A fixed-rate and long-reset hybrid transactions to 40% from 35% based on our belief that continued foreclosures, distressed sales, an increase in carrying costs for properties in inventory, costs associated with foreclosures, and further declines in home sales will depress prices further and push loss severities higher than we had previously assumed.
Additionally, we have seen a rise in the level of delinquencies among the
Alt-A mortgage loans supporting these transactions. As of the September 2008
distribution period, severely delinquent loans (90-plus days, foreclosures, and
real estate owned {REO}) for the affected transactions averaged 13.08% of the
current pool balances, which represents an increase of 27.61% since June 2008.
This increase in delinquencies, along with the increase in our loss severity
assumptions, prompted us to place these ratings on CreditWatch negative.
When determining rating actions on these deals going forward, we will be using the loss projections that we outlined in "S&P Revises Projected Losses For '06-'07 U.S. Alt-A Fixed-Rate And Long-Reset Hybrid RMBS," published on Oct. 13, 2008, on RatingsDirect.
As part of our analysis, we considered the characteristics of the underlying mortgage collateral as well as our view of macroeconomic influences. For example, our view of the risk profile of the underlying mortgage pools influences our default projections, while our outlook for housing price declines and our view of the health of the housing market influences our loss severity assumptions.
To assess the creditworthiness of each class, we reviewed the individual delinquency and loss trends of each transaction for changes, if any, in what we consider to be risk characteristics, as well as changes in servicing and the classes' expected ability to withstand additional credit deterioration. In order to maintain a rating higher than 'B', we considered whether a class could absorb losses in excess of the base-case assumptions we assumed in our analysis.
For example, under our analysis, one class may have to withstand approximately 115% of our base-case loss assumptions in order to maintain a 'BB' rating, while a different class may have to withstand approximately 125% of our base-case loss assumptions to maintain a 'BBB' rating. We expect that a class that has an affirmed 'AAA' rating is able to withstand approximately 150% of our base-case loss assumptions under our analysis, subject to individual caps and qualitative factors that we assumed on specific transactions.
We also took into account the pay structure of each transaction and only stressed each class with losses that we expected would occur while it remained outstanding. Additionally, we only gave excess interest credit for the amount of time the class would be outstanding. For example, if we projected a class to pay down in 15 months, then we applied only 15 months of losses to that class. Additionally, in such a case, we assumed 15 months of excess spread if the class was structured with excess spread as credit enhancement.
At the time of this release, we have resolved the CreditWatch placements on 4,670 ratings from 369 fixed-rate and long-reset hybrid Alt-A RMBS transactions since they were placed on Watch on Oct. 13, 2008, while 866 classes from 87 transactions remain on CreditWatch.
In the coming weeks, Standard & Poor's will continue to analyze the remaining transactions affected by our revised loss expectations according to our view of their order of performance, resolving the CreditWatch placements on what we consider to be worse-performing transactions first.
We expect to resolve the CreditWatch placements over the next several weeks.











