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IFR Preview-major US economic data for release Aug. 31
August 30, 2011 / 9:21 PM / 6 years ago

IFR Preview-major US economic data for release Aug. 31

WHAT: ADP National Employment, August
WHEN: Wednesday 0815 EDT (1215 GMT)
FORECASTS         Reuters     IFR     Previous
ADP (thousands)   +100        +50     +114
IFR COMMENTARY: "If forced to hazard a guess, we would look for
the ADP report to show a gain of about 50k private payrolls,
based on our estimate for an 80k gain in the BLS report on
Friday. But the ADP's performance in estimating the BLS figure
has been notoriously erratic.
 Still, we expect that the market will be watching ADP
carefully, as August was a particularly turbulent month, and
uncertainty about the labor market remains high. Thus the
market is hungrier than usual for clues to Friday's employment
report and, though it's not particularly reliable, ADP will at
least provide a hint as to how much hiring was affected by the
turmoil."
----------------
WHAT: National Association of Purchasing Management Chicago
Purchasing Managers Index, August
WHEN: Wednesday 0945 EDT (1345 GMT)
FORECASTS         Reuters     IFR     Previous
PMI               53.5        56.5    58.8
IFR COMMENTARY: "The Chicago PMI will likely drop from 58.8 to
around 56.5 in August, with recovering autos balancing cooling
growth elsewhere. The Chicago PMI has significantly
outperformed most other manufacturing surveys since about
mid-2010, and this month should be no exception despite the
decline, with other surveys ranging from weak (the Kansas City
Fed's +3 composite) to catastrophic (the Philly Fed's -30.7).
 A downward drift should be seen in most of the PMI's
component indices, though employment should rebound somewhat
from July's sharp 7.2-point dip."
----------------
WHAT: Commerce Department Factory Orders, July
WHEN: Wednesday 1000 EDT (1400 GMT)
FORECASTS (pct)         Reuters     IFR     Previous
Factory orders          +1.9        +1.9    -0.8
Factory ex-transport.   ----        +0.4    +0.1
IFR COMMENTARY: "Factory orders likely rose approximately a
strong 1.9% overall in July, but that masks some underlying
weakness, with ex-trans orders up a mere 0.4%. The 4.0% surge
in durables orders was surprisingly strong, but civilian
aircraft and autos were strong contributors, with ex-trans
durables up just 0.7%. While the bounce in autos will likely
stick, coming as it does as the industry is recovering from a
supply chain shock, the rate of growth will not stay that high
for long.
 Fuels will probably not be a strong contributor to
nondurables, with prices in July up very modestly. We look for
nondurables orders to be up just 0.2%. August factory sentiment
surveys have been weak so far, with only the Kansas City
reading (+3) showing any sort of growth. Still, the real
activity readings have been a bit more resilient than the
surveys, so with orders growth continuing to trend upward,
manufacturing may be able to dodge a significant contraction
during the current soft patch."
 For more Reuters consensus forecasts for U.S. indicators,
double-click on [ECI/US]
 -- by Theodore Littleton of IFR Markets, a unit of Thomson
Reuters.


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