Earnings pressure hits private equity portfolios

By Simon Meads and Megan Davies

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Private equity firms are revaluing their debt-laden portfolios at the half year mark and European funds are facing harsh writedowns as the economy continues to falter.

The rebound in equity markets from March lows back to levels at the end of December has spurred hopes that valuations may pick up again. However, investors remain cautious as it is still tough to predict earnings for portfolio companies.

"General partners are all saying very much the same thing -- the forward visibility on earnings is not good," said Rob Wright, partner at London-based private equity fund of funds Pantheon (PANI.L).

With company earnings challenged almost across the board, Wright said valuations would fall between 5 and 10 percent in 2009, with the biggest hits at firms that have struck bigger deals in more recent years.

"I think we will see pretty heavy writedowns again at the half year and probably again at the full year," said Iain Scouller, analyst at London-based Oriel Securities.

Scouller estimated net asset value falls in the range of 5 to 15 percent for 2009.

However, he said that assumption was based on equity markets remaining largely flat.

Britain's blue-chip FTSE 100 .FTSE share index slumped to 3,460 points in March but had regained more than 20 percent by the end of June, putting it back close to levels at the end of 2008, when private equity firms carried out their last major revaluation. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX rose 15 percent in the second quarter.

"The big risk is that equity markets fall away in the autumn like last year. And if you come out with that scenario you will see far bigger writedowns," said Scouller.

U.S. FUNDS

In the United States harsh markdowns have already been taken for the year end and first quarter, so half-year numbers should be less dramatic.

Funds are likely to mark their portfolios around the same as the end of the first quarter, according to two private equity fund sources. One of the sources said numbers could even rise due to the equity market rally.

"I don't see them marking anything up because (the markets) could easily fall back again. Equally, there's less argument for significant writedowns," said that sources. "The question is how trading will hold up for the rest of the year."

Buyout firms typically revalue their assets twice a year in Europe and quarterly in the United