* Nearly one in seven home loans not being fully repaid
* Rate of deterioration increases
* Analysts waiting for results of new insolvency rules
By Conor Humphries
DUBLIN, Feb 17 The number of problem
mortgages in Ireland grew sharply in the last three months of
2011, putting further pressure on its banks and highlighting the
challenges the government faces in reviving the moribund
Nearly one in seven Irish home loans are not being fully
repaid and repayment is getting more difficult as unemployment
remains stubbornly high and house prices continue to fall,
figures from the Central Bank showed.
"It's a worrying trend, what we're seeing now is a faster
pace of deterioration than any kind of stabilisation," said
Dermot O'Leary, chief economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers.
Stress tests carried out as part of Ireland's EU-IMF bailout
have bulked up Irish banks' balance sheets to deal with rising
arrears, based on an assumption that 6.7 percent of their
combined mortgage book would never be paid back.
But a report from the European Commission warned last year
that there was potential for higher-than-anticipated losses.
The central bank said 107,708 mortgages were either in
arrears or had been restructured at the end of December, up from
99,346 mortgages at the end of September. That represents some
14 percent of the total residential mortgage market.
The proportion of loans in arrears for more than 90 days
was 9.2 percent at the end of December, up from 8.1 percent at
the end of September. The deterioration increased to 110 basis
points from 90 basis points in each of the previous two
The figures only include owner occupiers and not investors
who bought properties to rent out, which represent some 22
percent of outstanding mortgages according to research carried
out by the central bank last year.
The government, which needs the economy to grow to help it
cut its own mountain of debt, announced proposals in January for
new personal insolvency and bankruptcy regimes, which it hopes
will address the mortgage arrears problem.
But insolvency experts have said it is too soon to say how
the new rules, which have not been finalised, might help.
"It is difficult to extrapolate too much from these figures
as to the likely effect for the banks' balance sheets given that
frustratingly buy-to-let, which is the most distressed segment
of their mortgage books, is not included," said Stephen Lyons, a
credit analyst at Davy Stockbrokers.
Highlighting the level of forbearance being shown by
lenders, repossessions since the central bank started issuing
data in late 2009 stood at just over 1,000 at end-December, far
below the 40,000 repossessions assumed in the stress tests.