May 16, 2011 / 12:32 AM / in 6 years

RPT-UPDATE 2-Japan March machinery orders jump surprises, firms optimistic

5 Min Read

 * March core machinery orders +2.9 pct vs forecast -9.6 pct
 * Manufacturers expect orders to rise in Q2 - govt
 * April wholesale prices +2.5 pct yr/yr vs forecast +2.1 pct

 (Repeats to restore text)	
 By Stanley White and Tetsushi Kajimoto	
 TOKYO, May 16 (Reuters) - Japan's core machinery orders
unexpectedly rose in March and manufacturers expect further
gains in the second quarter, counting on demand related to
reconstruction from the March 11 earthquake.	
 Analysts had expected domestic private sector orders to fall
following a slump in industrial output in March and some warned
capital spending could dip again in the near term, given
manufacturers' problems with getting production back to
pre-quake levels. 	
 Japanese companies are also grappling with rising fuel and
commodity costs and wholesale prices in April rose at their
fastest annual rate in 2-1/2 years, government data showed on
Monday.	
 Despite companies' optimistic forecasts, economists said
uncertainty over when the government will release the next batch
of funds for reconstruction clouded the outlook.  	
 "Orders from non-manufacturers, such as the
telecommunications industry, appear strong. Orders for equipment
to fix damage from the quake may be coming in," said Takeshi
Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.	
 "If demand related to quake reconstruction picks up,
companies may feel more willing to boost investment. But much
depends on when the government can compile its second extra
budget to fund spending, which is highly uncertain."	
 On Monday, Prime Minister Naoto Kan signalled the next extra
budget may have to wait until August or later, saying it would
be based on plans prepared by regional authorities in the
quake-hit areas. [ID:nL4E7GG0BE]	
  	
 Core machinery orders rose 2.9 percent in March from the
previous month, Cabinet Office data showed, against the median
estimate for a 9.6 percent fall and following a revised 1.9
percent decline in February. The rise was led by brisk demand
for electronics such as semiconductor production equipment.	
 Foreign orders, which are excluded from the core measure,
jumped 21.5 percent in January-March, compared with a 3.5
percent rise in core orders during the same quarter.	
 Manufacturers surveyed by the Cabinet Office have forecast
that core orders, a highly volatile data series regarded as an
indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months,
will grow 10 percent in April-June from the previous quarter.	
 But the government sought to tone down the overall message.	
 "Reconstruction demand may arise but companies may shelve
some capital spending plans because of the quake, so we'd better
be cautious about the outlook," a government official presenting
the data said.	
 Financial markets shrugged off the orders data given that 
economists still expect the economy, hobbled by supply-chain
bottlenecks, to shrink in the first half of this year. The
10-year Japanese government bond yield fell below 1.110 percent
to a 5 1/2-month low. 	
 However, signs that overseas demand was holding up made some
analysts expect a healthy pick up in capital spending in the
second half of the year.	
 "Few companies are expected to cut their long-term spending
plans sharply because the disaster has so far sparked only
supply constraints but not a steep pullback in demand," said
Yuichi Kodama, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance.	
 Wholesale prices rose 2.5 percent in the year to April, Bank
of Japan data showed on Monday, accelerating for a fifth
straight month on higher commodity prices. 	
 The rise in the corporate goods price index (CGPI), which
measures the prices that companies charge each other for their
goods and services, exceeded a median forecast for a 2.1 percent
increase and was the biggest gain since October 2008.	
 Japan is facing its worst crisis since World War Two after a
9.0 magnitude earthquake and a deadly tsunami battered its
northeast coast on March 11, leaving about 25,000 dead or
missing and crippling a nuclear plant to trigger the worst
nuclear crisis since Chernobyl.	
 The world's third-largest economy is set to log three
straight quarters of contraction at the end of June, marking a
return to recession amid a slump in factory output, depressed
business confidence and weak household spending after the
disaster, a Reuters poll showed. [ID:nTOE749001]	
 Data issued last month showed both industrial output and
household spending posted record declines -- 15.3 percent and
8.5 percent respectively -- in March, much worse than expected,
although manufacturers expect output to rise in April and May.	
	
 (Writing by Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by
Tomasz Janowski)	
 	
 

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