* "Yes" majority in in all eight provinces
* Kenyan financial markets expecting it to pass
* 44.5 pct say now have doubts about their church leadership
NAIROBI, July 30 Two-thirds of Kenyans intend to
vote in favour of a new constitution in a referendum on Aug. 4
and 87 percent of those surveyed will accept the result
whichever side wins, an opinion poll showed on Friday.
The poll by Strategic Research shows the "Yes" vote has
risen from 62 percent since the pollster's previous survey
published on July 16 as more people make up their minds, while
the "No" camp has remained stuck at 20 percent.
While Kenyan financial markets have largely discounted a
"Yes" win, analysts say at least two-thirds need to vote in
favour to give the new constitution credibility and there remain
concerns about violence, especially in the Rift Valley.
The survey showed the "Yes" camp would have a majority in
all of Kenya's eight provinces.
The contest would be tightest in the Rift Valley -- the
epicentre of Kenya's 2008 post-election violence -- where 51
percent said they were in favour of the new constitution and 34
The leaders of the coalition government have been backing
the new constitution while cabinet minister William Ruto and
former President Daniel arap Moi have been spearheading the "No"
Christian church leaders are also against the constitution
due to a clause allowing abortions on medical grounds and
recognition of Islamic courts dealing with divorce and
The poll showed, however, that 68 percent of Catholics
surveyed would vote in favour, 63 percent of Protestants would
say "Yes" while 74 percent of Muslims backed the draft.
Asked how the position of church leaders has affected their
relationship with their church, 44.5 percent said they had
developed doubts about their church leadership and 35 percent
said they liked their church even more.
The random nationwide survey of 2,400 people was conducted
on July 26-28. The sampling error was 1.6 percentage points at a
95 percent confidence level.
(Reporting by Richard Lough; Editing by David Clarke)